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All in all, boiling pie is right, though. Evil is supposed to win in the long run.
I do not agree with this statement.
I, and many others, have played Orc-heavy factions (Isengard / Moria), and have successfully completed the campaign. Doesn't mean it was easy though. We just had to play differently.
Fodder tactics do work, especially when Formations are used (i.e turned ON), and if used in a slightly advanced fashion (e.g put low level orcs in a different division and have them in front of your elite units).
The use of Warg riders is also very important to the success of Orc-heavy factions. Having 1 warg rider is essentially having 2 units. Using them to draw fire from archers or cause chaos will give you ample time to move your shock troopers forward.
Lastly, I know it can be counter-intuitive to have a INT based Orc / Uruk player, but having at least 3 skill points in Training will lead to snagas being promoted to second tier by end of the day.
What you have to understand is that every faction / theater has their own internal difficulty. You simply cannot play the same way for each faction, you have to learn your own troops and adapt to your enemies. Perhaps we do not give enough time and information on how to do this properly. We do strive to make things more readable, however there are things that the player has to learn themselves.
As to your points regarding Auto-calc, I agree with them, and it is really difficult to adjust and something that we have had issues with since the dawn of this mod, especially due TLD's asymmetric balance.
Thanks for the reply. I'm glad this is being worked on, especially since I'm aware how problematic it is to tune autoresolve around intentional number disparities between armies.
Obviously, evil winning isn't the issue here, it's the fact that it's accomplished through a series of autoresolved fights where 120 goblins can take on 100 elves / rohans and somehow come out ahead. I think there are more elegant solutions to ensuring that evil wins without player intervention, such as spawning additional parties for evil based on timed triggers. Buffing the autoresolve values of the good factions to bring them in-line with their actual unit quality would probably overpower them in regards to non-ork evil factions, so I'd rather see orks specifically get a severe nerf in regards to autoresolving and receive additional party size limits / NPC parties to compensate.
I get what you mean, LoTR orks in actual battles must be difficult to balance without breaking immersion, so I hope you can manage. Overall, my issue isn't so much completing the campaign with orks, infact I quite enjoyed playing as a fodder army, it's more the disparity between their impact on live battles and their impact on autoresolve. However, I also feel like you're overstating the viability of fodder orks - any evil player has steady access to cheap and yet much stronger Khand units for example, which have great stats, dont die easily, take up much less slots per wave and perform better against high-tier units - so using an ork-heavy army is more about immersion and artificial difficulty, in a way.
I think it would be really useful for ork armies to have a more modern deployment interface to assign unit slots for the first wave of each fight, which would make it possible to deploy fodder units in a more controlled fashion. Currently, the orks' primary downfall is their inability to deal proper damage to good mid-to-high tier units, making their numerical advantage not very relevant - this could be remedied by increasing their skills / weapon / pstrike values and nerfing their defensive stats. Another solution could be increasing wave size for deploying orks, although I'm not sure if this could be implemented. Maybe an alternative would be giving orks stat boosts based on the number of reserve orks in the army?