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Chance: Basically 0.
An ETS3 would mean that SCS has to renegotioate all the licences and you can bet that SCS won't get the licences for all the trucks currently in the game. It also won't be really different from ETS2. Basically an ETS3 would be a worse ETS2.
So with other publishers we would now already have ETS4 and were waiting eagerly to buy ETS5 as a new full price game, buy all DLC new for hundreds of Euros and then just read the announcement that in 2028 the cycle will start again with the relase of ETS6.
I'm really happy that SCS are making "forever games" and let us make a long term investment into their games by DLC instead of squeezing money out with new base game releases every few years. To be fair, if they would change that, I would stick with ETS2 as it is now and be a monetary loss for them - that is what I just recently did with Cities Skylines for exactly that reason I don't want to get into the money trap of buying the new game and loose all my money I put into DLC for the old one. And I'm sure I'm not alone with that and others would follow suit, leaving SCS with pockets emptier than many would think.
Why do you think they won't get licenses for all of the trucks (at least the one's currently available in ETS2) for ETS3? I don't have much idea how licensing works for trucks but seeing how well received and successful ETS2 is shouldn't it be somewhat easier
Yea I'm in the same boat really, I would only buy it IF it was very well made sequel to ETS2
Not to mention that there might be manufacturers that aren't that interested in licencing their trucks anymore.
Getting new licences will not be easier but in the best case as difficult as currently.
We wouldn't really gain anything, any performance/engine improvements can be done for ETS2 over time as free updates they do of course own the engine they use. The only thing ETS3 would bring is less content than we already have.
As said any branded content would have to be renegotiated and companies don't really like licensing out of production vehicles. So you can almost guarantee the older models wouldn't return. Volvo, DAF, MAN, and Renault (only T range) are the only ones we could bet on safely.
I mean look at the Scania 770 engine, we still don't have that yet and that is just a text file, and a small model of 3 numbers and a letter. Which suggests they are asking unreasonable amounts for it. I made that in 10 minutes as a mod so it's safe to after a year things are a bit iffy there even with the addition of the test centre in 1.50.
There's really no good reason to even consider ETS3 at this juncture.
If you think about it, we are kind of already in ETS 3 or ETS 4 but with content in expansion rather than restarting.
With the current work on old parts of the map, it is a sign of no plans on a sequel.
Content is king.
IMO and why I even thought about it is for graphical upgrades really, ETS2 looks great but if they were to work with some of the other game engines, it would look insane, just imagining it takes me to cloud 9. Upgrading game's graphics with the current engine I don't think that's possible.
£60 for a "slightly" updated game with features that aren't wanted or needed, features removed that are wanted. Just going from 2012 to present that's 12 years at approx £40py a person would have spent £480 for what?
At least with SCS they have given us free improvements and going forward there will be plenty more AT NO COST unless you have a potato and therefore will need to upgrade your kit or run with minimum specs.
I do think.. I don't have a lot of knowledge about how hard it would be transitioning from the engine that ETS2 currently uses (Prism3D) to UE5 but I assume it might enough of work that they would most likely repackage it into a sequel altogether
I have games using that engine and looking crap compared to ETS2. Like with every such thing it is junk in junk out. And a game engine is not only graphics, it is also physics, etc. With their own engine SCS are free to do what they want. And they know the engines does what they want and if not they can change the engine. If buying a license for a 3rd party engine they give up control over the game. And if that engine is replaced by a new version the old one gets abandoned and the game has to either freeze technically or convert to the new engine with a new licensen, new technology and new knowledge to be gained by SCS.
Basically it is starting at zero - or even minus 10 if they are not experienced with UE5 and need to learn how to actually use it before getting good results. UE5 like every such tool is "junk in - junk out", and junk is usually a product of lacking experience.
It is not sure that it would look better, it would develop slower and become more expensive due to license fees. Not a step forward if you ask me. Players should just accept that all games have to use the same engine is a somewhat unreal thought (pun intended)
I am happy with the path SCS is taking as it is giving us all these updates (aoart from DLC) for free and couldn't justify/afford buying a "new" game every year. Main reason for giving up on Madden and going with alternative gridiron game. Playability is more important to me but if it looks good that is a bonus.