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This raid took forever to appear too, and it was just a scouting party.
I don't know how settlement points are calculated, so I do understand why mine are so low, despite having quite a few colonists and a lot of wealth.
There are 2 enemy factions beside my settlement, but they never send anything toward me, even after I declare war on them.
1. Go to the global map and check your colony and note how many "Settlement points" your colony has, also note the "min amount for AI aggression" value
2. Now check nearby settlements of other factions:
- Is your colony within their range radius?
- Does their settlement have as many or more points than you?
- Is their aggression amount more than the min amount needed?
- Is the faction hostile to you?
If the answer to all the above is yes, then that Settlement can send offensive units to attack your colony.
If the faction neutral, then it can send caravans to trade with the player, if their aggression amount is greater than the minimum required.
If the settlement has fewer combat points than the player, then it won't send any units, though it will attempt to request reinforcements from settlements in the same faction that are outside the radius of the colony.
One last thing to consider, if the settlement is hostile to you, but it's also hostile to 4 the factions of 4 other settlements in range, then it can select any of those 5 settlements to attack (you and the 4 other settlements).
Settlements can send drop pod raids to attack you when they're outside of the range radius. This event is less frequent and it does require that the faction tech level is capable of creating drop-pods (tribals will never send drop pods at you).
I hope this helps, if you're still not getting raided and you've verified all the above, then feel free to discuss the event further with me in discord, with screenshots.
So for me I get hostiles incoming notification, but then no hostiles appear (disappear at my base)