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I've added all your mods I haven't checked before to our compatibility spreadsheet (link in the description above). Anyhow this specific issue is caused by Realistic African Colonization [1.37], which also tweaks where people can colonize.
Your list also has the following incompatible mods: AI Wants Nice Borders [1.37], Ages and Splendor Expanded, Ages Reformed (those two are also incompatible between eachother), Advisor Types Expanded (rather minor incompatibility), Responsible Blobbing (minor incompatibility, but can cause issues since it allows revolution to spread to your provinces) and Colonial Freedom [1.37].
@XartaX
Yeah, that's about the only things that can be kinda "kept", although it would also be a good opportunity to give them a proper rework. You make a fair point about population, although as you said we have to wait and see if those internal mechanics (and the game in general) is any fun.
And like I said, in EU5 population and markets are a much bigger part of the game than EU4. So arriving there with a smaller population and no industry to speak of (and very little, if anything, to source from neighbors) will be something you need to work at fixing if you're going to be able to stand up to Europe later. If anything I think the mod in EU5 (assuming the game doesn't suck) will have a less boring start than in the EU4 mod, since you actually have a lot of mechanics regarding the internal structure of your nation to work with.
I hope you find either a different satisfactory premise or another way around the fact that the game starts in the early 14th century.
Maybe you could go for that an expedition escapes when the black death hits to escape the plague.
Also would that be an excellent point to either steal some pops from byzantium for elysia or spawn some in as the world would be losing a lot of pops already and if you take them from byzantium it would just simulate them getting hit a bit harder then the gameresult.
Are you running any other mods? The -1000 malus is just a backup if they somehow get a colony via a peace deal, they normally shouldn't be able to colonize at all. But if you have any other mod that tweaks the "rules" of the game this restriction can get overriden.
I mean yeah the content would have to be "remade", but in a 1444 setting the flavor and story could be kept pretty much the same. 100 years earlier the carracks are not a thing (cries in the loading screen picture), Plethon doesn't exist, Empire is still there and is not guaranteed to fall (if the story is that you are some sort of expedition), etc.
Also 100 year gap kinda messes with the pacing, you have to start much weaker relatively so you aren't a continental superpower before Europeans arrive, making early game much more of a "watch colonies develop".
I'm not trying to sound overly pessimistic, just want to point out that TO starting in early 14th century is a whole another mod, that would be able to take very little from the current iteration.