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It also depends on the games and other people steam level. If someone is crafting a cs:go badge, everyone that owns cs:go and got all the cards drops can get a booster pack and you'll likely get beaten by a higher levels steam users of course.
But yeah. They're ridiculously rare.
Most of my booster drops where from fairly obscure or less well-known games so far. And yes, I received a fair share.
But since I have less than 40 games on Steam that even have trading cards, my chances are probably even slimmer than those of the average games hoarder. ^^ (no offense meant)
Unlock your drops for every game that has them.
Level up.
Remember
Very popular games have a lot of unlocked drop slots (rare chance big pool).
Odd games have few people badge-ing up (small chance small pool).
Best to go for the sweet spot, a game common but not too popular (med pool med chance).