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eveything else in your post has been covered and discussed to death in the many threads about the change.
Then you probably get the group of people who want to gift but can't due to regional blocking (which I'm assuming will get some sort of solution at some point).
Then there's probably a smaller group of people who liked doing random giveaways or something or perhaps for contests on Twitch and the like.
Then there's probably people who like to gift to friends whom I honestly think, if they really want to give to friends, they'll mostly end up doing so anyway because well, that didn't change did it? 4 packs were getting pretty rare as it was already anyway.
Anyway. I don't doubt this will have some impact at least.
there is no 4 pack of the game.
i have been talking with the devs on twitch about adding one. they said it "may happen" but not going to confirm that yet.
But it will also cut on fraudulent purchases in order to sell those gifts on grey market resellers; which not only doesn't give Steam money but costs them in chargeback fees.
Which probably means the amount of lost sales would still result in a net gain over the expenses of gift purchase fraud that happened.
TL:DR money from lost sales < money from fraud expenses
Yes, there will be lost sales but this will also put a huge dent in both resellers and fraud. I like to trade games and do group giveaways too so it's inconvenient for me but it's nice to see that Valve values principles over enabling the reseller market, even the "legit" resellers.
i have no insights of how much stuff was actually bought as a gift, i only have unit sale numbers. so i can only barelyimagine the overall impact.
Valve will know the numbers. if a change is too negative, they will adept again in a few months.
They probably dont even need the upcoming sale to now that, as they can see on the numbers of past sales how many gift purchases where made in them.
And i doubt that they would have reworked the gifting that way as it is now when that number would be the majority of sales...
If she is planning it out, then she can have the gifts delivered at a specific date during the sale.
I would think the restriction on gifting with a given prices diffrence would have more of an impact then how they are sent/stored.