Is the bad face/good face event really 50%?

[User_XO]

I have 1400 hours on this game and I can't remember the last time I got the +1 HP face relic.

[mldb88]

It's actually 40/40/20 (40 good/40 bad/20 caw caw). With which good or bad face you actually get being a 50/50 shot (+1 HP or +50 gold from ? rooms) the odds of getting specifically the Cleric Face is... a lot less clear lol. If I knew ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ about probability I could probably help more with the specifics haha.

[Cress]

There are 25 events you can encounter in act 1 and 30 in act 2 (some of these are shared between acts). Your odds will increase with each event taken, but your odds of even seeing the face trader, let alone getting the cleric face, are very low.

As far as anyone knows, the odds are exactly 20% for each face. I feel like the game has been sufficiently data mined to uncover if this were not the case.

[mldb88]

Originally posted by Cress:

There are 25 events you can encounter in act 1 and 30 in act 2 (some of these are shared between acts). Your odds will increase with each event taken, but your odds of even seeing the face trader, let alone getting the cleric face, are very low.

As far as anyone knows, the odds are exactly 20% for each face. I feel like the game has been sufficiently data mined to uncover if this were not the case.

Good to know. Wasn't sure if it rolled good/bad/neutral first then did a second roll for if good/bad, or if it was just a flat chance spread across all 5.

[76561199455560242]

Originally posted by mldb88:

Originally posted by Cress:

There are 25 events you can encounter in act 1 and 30 in act 2 (some of these are shared between acts). Your odds will increase with each event taken, but your odds of even seeing the face trader, let alone getting the cleric face, are very low.

As far as anyone knows, the odds are exactly 20% for each face. I feel like the game has been sufficiently data mined to uncover if this were not the case.

Good to know. Wasn't sure if it rolled good/bad/neutral first then did a second roll for if good/bad, or if it was just a flat chance spread across all 5.

Not sure if this is mathematically any different than 20% for each face. The wiki states what you said, so in the event it is different odds then we will go with what you said ;)

[mldb88]

Originally posted by CressAlt:

Originally posted by mldb88:

Good to know. Wasn't sure if it rolled good/bad/neutral first then did a second roll for if good/bad, or if it was just a flat chance spread across all 5.

Not sure if this is mathematically any different than 20% for each face. The wiki states what you said, so in the event it is different odds then we will go with what you said ;)

Lol yea I'm not sure if its different odds either. Trying to help a friend with calculus which I havent touched in over a decade reminded me just how much I can't math....

[Zu]

Originally posted by mldb88:

Originally posted by CressAlt:

Not sure if this is any different than 20% for each face.

math....

Depends on how the probabilities are weighted. If we assume even odds, birb mask would be the most likely at 33% and the other 4 would be half as likely.

[76561199455560242]

Originally posted by Zu:

Originally posted by mldb88:

math....

Depends on how the probabilities are weighted. If we assume even odds, birb mask would be the most likely at 33% and the other 4 would be half as likely.

That... doesn't sound right, but I don't know enough about probability to dispute it. How does bird mask go from 20% to 33%?

[mldb88]

Originally posted by CressAlt:

Originally posted by Zu:

Depends on how the probabilities are weighted. If we assume even odds, birb mask would be the most likely at 33% and the other 4 would be half as likely.

That... doesn't sound right, but I don't know enough about probability to dispute it. How does bird mask go from 20% to 33%?

would be 33/33/33 for good/bad/neutral if we're working assuming the game splits them evenly by category and not 40/40/20.

[Bren]

I've tried it twice, once I got caw caw, the 2nd time I got the bad face and just abandoned my run right there.

[mldb88]

Yea I find picking a face becomes less and less worth it as you climb higher in ascensions. The one that gives you relics for ? rooms gets less useful once you get the bad luck modifier in ascensions, and it's usually not worth risking it just for that 1/5 shot at cleric head.