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If I was shiv I'd have had cloak and dagger and stuff.
1x upgraded poison = 7 poison
if its burst 14 poison.
Then burst catalyst 14 x 3 = 42 poison
Then 42 x 3 = 126 poison
This all for 3 energy
Try get 126 damage onto an enemy for 3 energy with a shiv build. Even with the holy grail shuriken, kunai and ornamental fan its still gonna take you time to build up to 126 damage.
Also try fighting the heart with a shiv build, if you don't have 4x after images its a lost cause.
The silent has a great little card called footwork upgraded 3x dex, get one or two of these in your deck and you can pretty much block through anything with a little bit of weakness. Then you just put a little poison and wait for things to die.
There are three main powers that really benefit a shive deck. Precision+ boosts the damage of shives by 5. Considering that your likely to play more then four shives a turn in a shive build, that's a conservative 20 extra damage a turn from 1 card. Add to that in my experience presision is the most common power silent will have acsses to and getting multiple is very possible. In the run where I finally beat the game I had four presisions boosting a single Shiva damage up to 24!
The other two are blur which gives 1 block for every card played, and a thousand cuts which inflicts 2 damage and on each enemy for every card played.
The shive powers either rack up their damage much faster then noxtius fums, or help the silent with her shaky defence.
My point in this discussion isn't that poison is unplayable, just that shive is much strong AND more consistent. With exampels such has this with more powers that are in many ways just better then the one poison altunative.
Poison on he other hand just works. You can play it without noxious fumes as long as you have envenom and some poison sources, you can play it without envenom it just requires to stay alive longer. There's no relics that are mandatory to play posion either (snecko skull obviously good but not required).
It mostly goes like this for me at least: if you get all right combo pieces to start with shiv build (at least single accuracy early), go for shiv. Otherwise posion just safer choice in general.
And yes Catalist is very strong, but it's a rare card I've done many full silent runs without seeing at all. A single very rare card almost needed in poison builds.
On top of that you forget to account for the fact that poison will do dammage on the following turn.
Two cloak and daggers+ with one precission plus is 36 dammage for three energy. One bouncing flask does 16 dammage on the first turn, then 15, then 14 and so on. (It is a little worse agains multiple opponents but still..)
If poison is not working for you, your strategy needs ajustment, not the poison cards.
I would say that shiv deck is great (except you accidentally grab velvet choker) but poison is more reliable.
Also, you mention Catalyst is a "rare" card so you may not get it (and you say it is almost required, but that is far from true. Just did the "only commons" achievement with poison, literally just a few upgraded deadly poisons were more than enough to carry a game), but it is the same rarity as your beloved Accuracy. It is also way better when stacked than Accuracy is, which can be done with additional copies or with Burst, which is something you can't do to Accuracy. Poison also hard counters some enemies, something Shiv doesn't really do outside of what, the byrds?. Shiv also gets countered by more things than poison, especially in act 3, with thorns and malleable (along with the intent switching of the writhing mass).
Lastly, I wouldn't consider Bouncing Flask a "mainstay" of poison. Its high cost and random nature make it mediocre, especially without Snecko Skull. Even against a single target, 2 energy for 12 poison is only ok. I would consider Deadly Poison more core than Bouncing Flask, since it is 7 poison for 1 energy, making it more effecient energy-wise and more flexible. Your comparison in the OP also randomly decided that one side gets a another card to set it up and the other doesn't. Even with your random Accuracy buff, two Cloak and Daggers deal 36 damage. Bouncing Flask alone deals 12+11+10+9+8+7+6+5+4+3+2+1= 78 damage. While it is over many turns (though it went over Cloack and Dagger on just the fourth tick), it also stacks with other poison sources, including itself. Another two Cloak and Daggers do the same damage as the first one, another Bouncing Flask will deal more since it freezes the tickdown for one of them for a while.