chance of australium drop?

[D.B. Gennifer]

was wonder if there was an exact number thats known now since the source code was leaked

[(っ● ‿ ●)っ]

the drop rate wasn't revealed from that leak since it's the item server that handles aussie drops, not your client

the drop rate is estimated between 1 and 5%, but no one actually knows

[Nadi]

I've been told the average is pretty much from 15~25 tours per drop. It's better to just buy the australium or take up a few months of trading rather than to gamble it on a small percentage. Play MVM for fun, not profit.

[Coffefe]

I don't even know the drop rate. I think its like 3% but who knows

[TNT]

So I started taking advantage of replaying a ticket since forever to start keeping track of how many players are completing a tour, how many of those get a third tour drop, and how many of those get australium, as well as their tour count.

So far, of 278 players completing a tour, 62 have received a third item, of which 4 were australium. That's an observed third item chance of 22.3%, and an observed australium chance of 1.4%.

For the australium chance, using a Wilson score 99% confidence interval, range is 0.4% to 4.7%. I'll feel pretty good about my sample representing the population around n=800.

I haven't seen any evidence that drops are weighted to lower tour counts: for any particular tour count X that received a third drop/aussie drop, the count of players receiving third drops/aussies with tour <= X divided by the count of all players receiving third drops/aussies is basically equal to the count of tour-completing players with tour <= X divided by the count of all players completing tours.

Before starting this, my guess was that third drop chance was 1/5 and aussie chance was 1/100. Now I'd only say third drop is 20-25% and aussie is 1-2%.

[will i am]

i must incrediable unlucky if i never got a 3d crate from 10 tours of tc

[TNT]

~1/20 if 25% chance, ~1/10 if 20%. Unlucky but not crazy.

At 2% chance for aussie, that's 35 tours to complete before you're at 50-50 odds of having gotten one. If it's 1% chance, it's closer to 70 tours. For Two Cities, $140 on tickets best case, maybe more like $280. To be just barely-more-likely-than-not to find an australium, any australium, let alone the one you want.

Extend even your 1/10 better case unlucky streak, which isn't exactly out of this world unusual, to aussies, and that's 113 tours or $452 without australium. At 2%. If aussie is 1%, it's a 229 no-aussie streak at $916.

Anyway kids, don't gamble, and certainly not on MvM. Get your australium from the market place, or better yet, remember that cosmetics are for casuals.

[[dustbowl.tf] jh34ghu43gu]

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2312971683

[TNT]

Originally posted by FP jh34ghu43gu:

https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2312971683

Interesting. I wonder if my numbers will converge as I approach n=800, or if backpack.tf users are a skewed vs. the overall MvM population. A TF2 player can have a public inventory, but if they haven't ever used backpack.tf, then their inventory statistics would not be included, correct?

[[dustbowl.tf] jh34ghu43gu]

It's my belief as stated in the guide that the amount of aussies not being recorded (scm/private) would cancel out with the amount of tours not recorded (deleters/private).

[cy]

Just buy the aussies u want it's way cheaper and isn't a hassle to get. However if ur just playing mvm for the fun of it and ur curious to how the drop rate works disregard this

[Marteun]

Originally posted by will i am:

i must incrediable unlucky if i never got a 3d crate from 10 tours of tc

for me was 10 3rd crates

[Sander]

chances are hilariously random, you either dont get anything or you suddently get 4 boxes or god tier stuff or you get aussie but its a blutsauger or axe

[Sander]

Originally posted by will i am:

i must incrediable unlucky if i never got a 3d crate from 10 tours of tc

i had like 15 third crates in a row with NOTHING VALUE IN IT, yea im very "lucky"

[Hell-met]

ok

[will i am]

at least you got the crate