Team Fortress 2

Team Fortress 2

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MvM Loot: A Statistical Analysis
By [FP] jh34ghu43gu and 1 collaborators
What is the aussie drop rate? Pan drop rate? Which tour has the best loot? All this and more will be answered in this analysis of tour related data gathered from backpack.tf stats.
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Disclaimer and etc..
You can view all my data and make your own conclusions from this google sheets here[docs.google.com].

This guide is my conclusions from the data and the actual rates cannot be known unless Valve themselves released the info. However there is a LARGE amount of data to draw a conclusion from confidently.

A quick point to keep in mind however is this is only data on backpack.tf. This means:
  • Private inventories aren't being logged
  • If someone has never loaded their backpack on the site it would not be logged
  • Both of the above can still sell their loot into the public inventory without having their tours logged.
  • At the same time loot can be put into the private inventory from the public inventory and thus tours are added with that loot not being logged.
I believe this data is still a good estimate for rates as I believe those last two points should mostly cancel each other out.
Let's talk drop rates
This is probably why you are here, what are the drop rates on these gold guns?
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2.11%

Amazing I know, let's get more detailed:

If you get an aussie you have about a 5.5% chance to get any of them except the eyelander which has about a 1.5% chance. I have to use "about" on those numbers due to the medi-gun and wrench not dropping for almost 2 years as that threw off the stats by a substantial amount. Including those 2, the eyelander drop rate is 1.8% and all others are ~5.5%; but discluding them it is 1.97% and ~6% respectively.

Interestingly it seems the drop chance for the medi and wrench during those 2 years went to the rocket launcher and scattergun, as they have an almost 1% higher chance relative to the other aussies. This could also be that more public backpacks can afford to buy them and thus skewing the stats. :bl3shrug:


Pan drop rate?
0.0053%
OR in easier to grasp terms - 1 in 19,000
For reference I went to my state's lottery website to try and find a scratch game with a $4,000 prize and found one with a 1 : 23,436.2 odds and lots of $5,000 prizes hovering around the 1 : 60,000 odds.


Botkillers appear pretty uniform across all tours with a nice ~10.5% chance for the rare ones and ~89.5% for the common ones. Also since botkillers are attached to a tour I can calculate the amount missing from public backpacks which amounts to about 17% from each tour. This is impossible to do for the aussies since 4 tours drop them and they were not always dropping from 3 of them. Extrapolating this % to aussies probably means that the aussie drop rate is higher than the 2.11% mentioned earlier but unlike botkillers, most people actually want to sell an aussie since they are normally worth something thus leading to more entering the public inventory.
Let's talk money
What tour has the best return? How much does valve make off of tickets? Can I make profit? This section will answer these questions and more!

For starters lets go through how much valve is making from ToD ticket sales alone (no surplus and no scm resales):
Oil Spill: $972k
Steel Trap: $1.06 million
Mecha Engine: $1.04 million
Two Cities: $13.12 million
Gear Grinder: $944k

For a grand total of $17,141,884.65
It should also be mentioned this doesn't take into account the free tickets given at Smissmas time in the past. It also doesn't take into account level 1 badges (as those are people who did not complete a tour yet), so if someone only used free tickets they would not have been able to contribute to this value.
And obviously it doesn't include the private profiles (however I did add ~10k tours to 2c due to a few people I've met with private profiles and some deleters). I would feel safe assuming the grand total with surpluses is over $25 million. Not too shabby for a f2p game.


What about loot value? (These are all averages obviously everything is luck based.)

Oil Spill: $0.40 : N/A : -$5.54
Steel Trap: $1.59 : 827 : -$4.35
Mecha Engine: $1.22 : 2,054 : -$1.75
Two Cities: $3.01* : 3,788 : -$0.95
Gear Grinder: $1.14 : 1,972 : -$1.83

What is that second number you might ask? That is the tour you'll break even if you find a pan. If you manage to find a pan before that tour you will likely have done the impossible and profited from mvm (rip anyone who sold pan for $2k tho) assuming you can get $3,600 for it and all your tickets costs $0.99. If you go past that number you will just have to find 2 pans :) (there's probably <10 people who are past the number on any tour individually, <100 counting all tours for each person).

The third number is your loss per tour (ticket amt * ticket price - loot value).

*While not in the spreadsheet the pro kit avg was manually calculated based on scm prices however the spec fab and normal killstreak kit avg is completely guessed. If you drop the spec avg to 5 cents the numbers change to $2.85 : 3,235 : - $1.11
Let's conclude
In conclusion two cities is the best tour suck it mecha nerds.
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56 Comments
ShibaKnight Apr 18 @ 11:57am 
Meh
Gear grinder’s more fun
DM2145 Jan 10 @ 7:41am 
getting a golden pan is a straight upgrade to all melee weapons, change my mind.
Disco_Man12 Dec 16, 2020 @ 4:29pm 
Demopan Gaming
Richard Dec 16, 2020 @ 7:42am 
shut up 2 cities nerd, botkillers are the only weapons in team fortress 2
red⋆mits Dec 15, 2020 @ 12:08pm 
Gas passer anger too often comes from a sniper using explosive headshot with an engi pocketing him whilst the rest of the team lack health and ammo and a decent game.
gaming Dec 15, 2020 @ 3:17am 
gambling addiction is bad
Batman127 Dec 14, 2020 @ 11:17pm 
why is this comment section fucking fighting each other
The Spy Is A Spy™ Dec 14, 2020 @ 6:44pm 
aaaaa-
Spy's Baguette | Buying Cards Dec 14, 2020 @ 4:06pm 
this outlook is very interesting, ill do some more research on my own but I think you sum it up very well.
Shotgun Pyro Dec 14, 2020 @ 12:58pm 
Literally the most accurate description of MvM players