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Personally I'd go with 2028 for Fallout 5. Starfield is almost here so about a 3 year window for its finished development and DLC. Then around 2025-6 Elderscrolls VI releases and 2 more years of DLC for that brings us to 2028 for the release of Fallout 5.
..........................
As for Starfield, I'll take a wait and see as Bethesda most definitely isn't a buy on release franchise. Mind you with the next Dragon Age still flopping about, and Anthem being a train wreck that is being cleared off the track, we aren't likely to see a retry of post third game Mass Effect any time soon, so there really isn't any competition for new space semi open world space RPG.
I would rather the game take an extra 5+ years and be mind-blowing, but that's asking a lot from Bethesda Game Studios. If Microsoft were smart, they would get their best people on it, including people who still work for Obsidian that worked on New Vegas, because it's the people from Interplay (which later was replaced by Obsidian) that made it a fan favourite.
but bethesda's busy
TL:DR
Nobody knows ♥♥♥♥, why are you speculating?
When Bethesda joins EA, they will not only be providing pride and accomplishment, or open worlds and "You can climb that mountain" but realistic deaths as well. Likely around the next COVID variant Alphix-Omega-Episilon-Gamma-37892-C-B-F-Z-#% - 2SPR-LG-B-T - 420-69, and its next vaccine. Which will, no doubt, be added to this game. Get the vaccine, get the free pay-to-win Bethesda title.
The future is glorious.
It's already been 7 years now since Fo4 released. I think the main thin deciding if a new Fallout releases soon or not is whether or not the new elder scrolls game is around the corner.
If yes: Then yeah we prob won't see a new fallout until 27-28.
If no: New fallout between 24-25.
People saying 2030 are nuts.
What Bethesda really needs to do is take the franchise in a direction it hasn't been yet to give it a breath of fresh air: Make an Open world fallout game based BEFORE the bombs dropped.
Unless Bethesda goes belly up, Fallout isn't going away anytime soon.
I'm sorry but Fallout is done. Every game really is the same, just "hey its California in the post apocalypse! Hey it's Washington DC in the post apocalypse! Hey it's Boston in the post apocalypse!"
It's been done over and over, different locals, yes, but nothing new has been learned or can be learned. It's just big evil corrupt companies and government made nuclear apocalypse and you come out 200 years later to finish fetch quests and shoot monsters and bandits and robots. Oh and ppl dress up and listen to 1950s music
Was it fun? Heck yeah. Do we need to keep retelling the SAME DAMN STORY for the 8th time? Heck no.