Sales Update: 3 Million Players

[Smooth_Merc]

From Ubisoft FB Account:

🔥 OVER 3 MILLION PLAYERS FOR AC SHADOWS! 🔥

✅2nd highest Day 1 sales revenue in Assassin's Creed franchise history.
✅Biggest Ubisoft Day 1 ever on PlayStation Digital Store.
✅Best community ever, with over 40 Million hours already played.

Justice is forged in the Shadows. 🦅

Source: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1ABWU3Kvmo/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[Daevinski]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Dagtag:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Daevinski:

Because people pay Ubisoft+, Game Pass and others to have as many games as possible for the lowest price they can. It doesn't say anything about the actual interest people may have for a particular title or IP. The individual sales on the other hand, even the player counter here on Steam, says a lot more about the real success of Shadows.

Incorrect.

Because you are now assuming that EVERYONE on Ubisoft+ doesn’t like the game.

Why can’t you just accept that Ubisoft+ has an impact on steam sales…. Surely even you must understand that some people using Ubisoft + would have bought ac shadows had it not been for the subscription service.

AC Shadows is not a cheap game. Not at all. So, if you're willing to pay good money for the game, it means you REALLY want it, you really value the title and the franchise. You can't say the same about a subscription service where people pay a low price for a big package of assorted games they don't even care to keep.

So, until they share the number of individual copies sold, the number of players doesn't mean as much as you think it means.

[bruh]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von casdarius:

is the game on gamepass? because i very highly doubt that theyve sold 3m copies... which is still 5m short of breaking even on their dev costs alone.

the have a microtransaction store too. this game is meant for long term profits just like the previous rpg ac games

[patrick68794]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Daevinski:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Dagtag:

Incorrect.

Because you are now assuming that EVERYONE on Ubisoft+ doesn’t like the game.

Why can’t you just accept that Ubisoft+ has an impact on steam sales…. Surely even you must understand that some people using Ubisoft + would have bought ac shadows had it not been for the subscription service.

AC Shadows is not a cheap game. Not at all. So, if you're willing to pay good money for the game, it means you REALLY want it, you really value the title and the franchise. You can't say the same about a subscription service where people pay a low price for a big package of assorted games they don't even care to keep.

So, until they share the number of individual copies sold, the number of players doesn't mean as much as you think it means.

It means this has been the second largest launch for the franchise in terms of revenue at least

[DragonBane]

Supposedly there is 3 million players, but they haven't even hit 1 million sales yet. How does that work exactly? And if Ubisoft had gotten 1 million sales already, they would make sure that everyone knows about it by posting it everywhere in big bold script.

[Dagtag]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Daevinski:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Dagtag:

Incorrect.

Because you are now assuming that EVERYONE on Ubisoft+ doesn’t like the game.

Why can’t you just accept that Ubisoft+ has an impact on steam sales…. Surely even you must understand that some people using Ubisoft + would have bought ac shadows had it not been for the subscription service.

AC Shadows is not a cheap game. Not at all. So, if you're willing to pay good money for the game, it means you REALLY want it, you really value the title and the franchise. You can't say the same about a subscription service where people pay a low price for a big package of assorted games they don't even care to keep.

So, until they share the number of individual copies sold, the number of players doesn't mean as much as you think it means.

This is still wrong for the exact reason i already outlined…

If someone thinks ubisoft+ is more beneficial for them then they are going to pay for that instead. It has nothing to do with how much they REALLY want it.

Because again, there are numerous people that would have likely bought the game had it not been on Ubisoft +

[AdahnGorion]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Roy:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von AdahnGorion:

Made up?
https://gamalytic.com/game/3159330

We have an official Ubisoft post, that said PC made up 27% of all revenue and that Steam was a big part of it.... So its fairly easy.
As for production cost (without advertisement)
Here is one of many (yes everything is estimates, always is.. but they are often dead spot on, as showcased in future investor calls)
https://www.sportskeeda.com/esports/rumor-how-much-assassin-s-creed-shadows-cost-make-ubisoft-ceo-revealed-delay-affected-them-financially

The delay itself was 20m in cost... (that was official from ubisoft, as Yves said that)

These games are huge budget... some of the biggest in gaming history.. I don´t know why people still think Ubisoft is some small fish, when it comes to budget..... The vast majority of big AAA games are above 150m, but these big ringers are all above 250m and this one most likely (low estimate with advertisment budget) 400m... could be 500m as well.. without it being unrealistic, but I pick lowest estimates to be sure.

I also take largets gross revenue estimates for the unknowns, albeit its pretty easy to guess, since they revealed the % split between platforms and with steam´s open data.


None of this means, that the game is not good, that is a subjective thing, I hope people enjoy it, but trying to pan AC:S as some huge success financially is just silly.

It's outselling Odyssey by most assumptions. A game that sold 10,000,000 copies in two years. inb4 a newly minted stock bro tells me it needs to sell 40,000,000 to be profitable.

Incorrect.

They said that Day one numbers for Gross revenue was higher for AC:Shadows, compared to Odyssey.

That is not unlikely. Odyssey released 7 years ago and the daily steam userbase (this is just steam alone) is over twice as large now..
Factor in that Odyssey was not on steam day one.

Odyssey did not need as much gross revenue to make a profit either, as AC:Shadows does, as that game had under half the budget of what AC:Shadows have.

Its like trying to argue, that a new Pizza place is a great success, compared to the old burger joint 7 years ago... because they have a larger gross revenue.. but people forget that the staff needs twice as much in wage now, the products cost 300% more to make and then it does not really matter if you have twice the revenue, you will still have less profit or even a loss...


Its the same here..

AC:S at its lowest estimate is 400m.
So a gross revenue (from all sources) on day one for ie. 150m is not really a good result.


As you might have noticed, there are already talks about reconstruction.


If you wanna talk about what AC:S needs to be profitable.. then lets do that math.

Lets assume that 80% (this is low placed) is from 3rd party platforms (PSN, Xbox, Steam, etc) you need to take 30% cut of those revenue.

We know that steam made (I round up now) 30m gross revenue and that it is likely 20% of all gross revenue.
So its a total of 120m for 3rd party, you need to take away a 30% cut here, + taxes.
Then the last 30m is pure Ubisoft (copies sold on their platform, rental shares and mtx)

There is no way, this game is reaching the 400m budget anytime soon.
Due to all the cuts and taxes, you need a significantly higher amount than the 400m to break even.. this is why people say it needs a billion to be decent in its outcome.. I might need a tad less to break even, but again.. it is nowhere close.

[Dagtag]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von DragonBane:

Supposedly there is 3 million players, but they haven't even hit 1 million sales yet. How does that work exactly? And if Ubisoft had gotten 1 million sales already, they would make sure that everyone knows about it by posting it everywhere in big bold script.

Okay so you assume they didn’t reach 1 million sales because they didn’t specifically communicate it? Yeah no…. You don’t know that.

[Roy]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von AdahnGorion:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Roy:

It's outselling Odyssey by most assumptions. A game that sold 10,000,000 copies in two years. inb4 a newly minted stock bro tells me it needs to sell 40,000,000 to be profitable.

Incorrect.

They said that Day one numbers for Gross revenue was higher for AC:Shadows, compared to Odyssey.

That is not unlikely. Odyssey released 7 years ago and the daily steam userbase (this is just steam alone) is over twice as large now..
Factor in that Odyssey was not on steam day one.

Odyssey did not need as much gross revenue to make a profit either, as AC:Shadows does, as that game had under half the budget of what AC:Shadows have.

Its like trying to argue, that a new Pizza place is a great success, compared to the old burger joint 7 years ago... because they have a larger gross revenue.. but people forget that the staff needs twice as much in wage now, the products cost 300% more to make and then it does not really matter if you have twice the revenue, you will still have less profit or even a loss...


Its the same here..

AC:S at its lowest estimate is 400m.
So a gross revenue (from all sources) on day one for ie. 150m is not really a good result.


As you might have noticed, there are already talks about reconstruction.

No one cares about timeline of sales or how many people are living. Just sales and profit. There is no 'low as 400m' estimate. You have people outside the industry making up numbers and regurgitating them anywhere people will listen. And 300% is indeed a made up figure in this quote.

[bshock]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von DragonBane:

Supposedly there is 3 million players, but they haven't even hit 1 million sales yet. How does that work exactly? And if Ubisoft had gotten 1 million sales already, they would make sure that everyone knows about it by posting it everywhere in big bold script.

According to the doubters, most of the 3 million sales have been people playing and then refunding it on Steam, console owners having parties at their homes and everyone signing in on a different account to try it out, and Ubisoft lying.

[patrick68794]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von AdahnGorion:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Roy:

It's outselling Odyssey by most assumptions. A game that sold 10,000,000 copies in two years. inb4 a newly minted stock bro tells me it needs to sell 40,000,000 to be profitable.

Incorrect.

They said that Day one numbers for Gross revenue was higher for AC:Shadows, compared to Odyssey.

That is not unlikely. Odyssey released 7 years ago and the daily steam userbase (this is just steam alone) is over twice as large now..
Factor in that Odyssey was not on steam day one.

Odyssey did not need as much gross revenue to make a profit either, as AC:Shadows does, as that game had under half the budget of what AC:Shadows have.

Its like trying to argue, that a new Pizza place is a great success, compared to the old burger joint 7 years ago... because they have a larger gross revenue.. but people forget that the staff needs twice as much in wage now, the products cost 300% more to make and then it does not really matter if you have twice the revenue, you will still have less profit or even a loss...


Its the same here..

AC:S at its lowest estimate is 400m.
So a gross revenue (from all sources) on day one for ie. 150m is not really a good result.


As you might have noticed, there are already talks about reconstruction.

Odyssey was absolutely on Steam day 1 lol release date was October 5th, 2018. Guess when it was released on Steam?

https://steamdb.info/app/812140/

October 5th, 2018

[Dagtag]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von AdahnGorion:

Factor in that Odyssey was not on steam day one.

It was, this has been pointed out repeatedly

[AdahnGorion]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von patrick68794:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von AdahnGorion:

Incorrect.

They said that Day one numbers for Gross revenue was higher for AC:Shadows, compared to Odyssey.

That is not unlikely. Odyssey released 7 years ago and the daily steam userbase (this is just steam alone) is over twice as large now..
Factor in that Odyssey was not on steam day one.

Odyssey did not need as much gross revenue to make a profit either, as AC:Shadows does, as that game had under half the budget of what AC:Shadows have.

Its like trying to argue, that a new Pizza place is a great success, compared to the old burger joint 7 years ago... because they have a larger gross revenue.. but people forget that the staff needs twice as much in wage now, the products cost 300% more to make and then it does not really matter if you have twice the revenue, you will still have less profit or even a loss...


Its the same here..

AC:S at its lowest estimate is 400m.
So a gross revenue (from all sources) on day one for ie. 150m is not really a good result.


As you might have noticed, there are already talks about reconstruction.

Odyssey was absolutely on Steam day 1 lol release date was October 5th, 2018. Guess when it was released on Steam?

https://steamdb.info/app/812140/

October 5th, 2018

Odyssey was released October 2nd.
It was not on steam day one. Have fun.

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Dagtag:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von AdahnGorion:

Factor in that Odyssey was not on steam day one.

It was, this has been pointed out repeatedly

It was not.

https://www.metacritic.com/game/assassins-creed-odyssey/
Released On: Oct 2, 2018

[Roy]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von AdahnGorion:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Roy:

No one cares about timeline of sales or how many people are living. Just sales and profit. There is no 'low as 400m' estimate. You have people outside the industry making up numbers and regurgitating them anywhere people will listen. And 300% is indeed a made up figure in this quote.

Ignored.
No point in debating, if you seriously think this is some 100m budget project..

Have a good day.

Yeah run away with your made up numbers when we can easily wait for concrete facts. A game 'you' estimate to have 150m day one sales and a possibly 400m budget is already a failure to you. Laughable.

[SciopticChimken]

Its funny because they only do these "x million players thing" after their stock nosedives like it did at 1 pm GMT +1 today where it lost nearly all of its momentum so they do this to stabilize it and try to generate confidence. These posts arent for their players

Meanwhile Wilds sold enough to make their budget back in one day and sold 8 mil in three. Thats sales by the way.

[Xarko]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von DragonBane:

Supposedly there is 3 million players, but they haven't even hit 1 million sales yet. How does that work exactly? And if Ubisoft had gotten 1 million sales already, they would make sure that everyone knows about it by posting it everywhere in big bold script.

From a PR perspective it's better to just keep saying the number you mentioned before is increasing. Even if they reach 1M units sold it would look bad to Joe the NPC to see you go from 3M to 1M no matter what it is. Most can't even tell the difference between players and sales, so why not mention the higher number. They are doing a right thing there. Although they shouldn't have mentioned the hours played, that's not a good look for anyone who does the math, but they probably know Joe won't bother.