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The only times I've heard of this happening is with older mods that touch Settlement assets and with ToM active (which you've already discounted for your case).
As a longshot, it's also possible the alert state of your settlement might have become corrupted. Boot up the save editor, go into raw JSON, into "BaseContent>SettlementStatesV2", hit CTRL+F and search for your Steam username (or settlement name, either way). When you find it, grab the value of "LastAlertChangeTime" and convert it into a human-readable time (such as via https://www.epochconverter.com/ or similar). If the timestamp is for a date in the future, a date impossibly in the past (1970's, etc.), zero, or negative, change it to the unix timestamp for "now" and see if that fixes it.
On the bright side, the problem is gone (at least for now). I did two things yesterday, after posting this, that I haven't done in a really long time:
1. I went into full offline mode (steam itself offline) and,
2. I actually talked to the visitor that arrived a the settlement (the settlement has long since been basically capped, so I haven't been doing that).
I'm not sure which if either of those things resolved the issue, but suddenly the constant attacks have stopped. We'll see if that continues once I go back online.
I checked the LastAlertChangeTime and it was just a little before 'right now'.
Glad you got it to stop, at least.
My settlement is also permanently "under attack" so I gave your suggested fix a go. Didn't change anything unfortunately. I *think* this broke when Worlds pt1 removed sentinels from my planet - the event is queued but can't resolve because the sentinels that would attack aren't allowed to spawn. Just a theory though.
For me it started quite a while before the Worlds Update though, like nearly a year before. (And my planet still has hostile sentinels)
I'll take our glitch over those other ones any day!
I've been experiencing the issue since last year but can't figure out exactly what causes it. At this point I've just given up trying to.
For that matter, every 4 days isn't exactly accurate either. There's a rating for the settlement which determines the rate the aggression meter grows. It can be faster or slower depending on what was built at the settlement and some (albeit rare) settlement decisions.