Just for curiosity - How rare are crashed exotics?

[Khalunka]

Its the first time I ever found one, I am quite surprised. Are crashed ships 'fixed' in that system? (Like, this system will always have this crashed exotic?)

[Krash Megiddo]

Escrito originalmente por mbrowne999:

Escrito originalmente por Khalun:

I never had a Squid. Guess its going to be my next goal now. To find a squid on my own. Wish me luck.

Good luck. I haven't found a crashed one, but in my current game a landed pilot trader brought me one.

That might be the fast track to finding a crashed squid. First, find a system with a squid exotic in its ship pool.

[sstooney]

Escrito originalmente por Khalun:

I never had a Squid. Guess its going to be my next goal now. To find a squid on my own. Wish me luck.

3-star economy systems give more chance.
I found my only squid in a battle - it was a pirate ship. But if you know that this ship in this star system, you have to do is to wait it in SS or at the Trading post.

[Orion Invictus]

I have never seen one in ~600 hours. Make of that what you will.

[japp_02]

In the past years I never found an exotic crashed ship, even when actively searching crash sites, every type A,B,C in every size but no exotic. The probability for it must be nil or very low. You need to see the game file which is accessible for modding to be sure.
What you will find in the current version are the common ships that you meet in space stations or elsewhere, very similar in shape but slightly different in slot size and stats. So what matters is the distribution of ships depending on the system wealth. If you want to find valuable ships on crash sites go in a wealthy system.

[sstooney]

The best I found (and shared it on NMSCE):
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2811866366

[japp_02]

2% spawn probability for an exotic means: After 100 visits on different crash sites you are only 50% likely to have found 2 exotics. You can represent this in a Gaussian function with the most likely probability (50%) at the top of the curve and every other point on the curve less likely.
So you can imagine the huge work necessary to find them :)

[Orion Invictus]

Escrito originalmente por japp_02:

2% spawn probability for an exotic means: After 100 visits on different crash sites you are 50% likely to have found 2 exotics. So you can imagine the huge work necessary to find them :)

That's not how probability works, at all. With a 2% chance, after 100 visits there's about an 86.74% chance to have found one or more exotic ships. Look up "binomial distribution".

[japp_02]

Escrito originalmente por Orion Invictus:

Escrito originalmente por japp_02:

2% spawn probability for an exotic means: After 100 visits on different crash sites you are 50% likely to have found 2 exotics. So you can imagine the huge work necessary to find them :)

That's not how probability works, at all. With a 2% chance, after 100 visits there's about an 86.74% chance to have found one or more exotic ships. Look up "binomial distribution".

It's a Gaussian function with the most likely occurence at the top. For example, if an event has a certain probability to occur within 200 years, then the most likely occurence time is after 100 years.

[Darth Cervantes]

Escrito originalmente por Khalun:

I never had a Squid. Guess its going to be my next goal now. To find a squid on my own. Wish me luck.

I've NEVER seen a squid. I have one because I got one off a youtube video (but that particular one is not around anymore)
Literally have NEVER seen one in any space station or trading post. Not once!

[Orion Invictus]

Escrito originalmente por japp_02:

Escrito originalmente por Orion Invictus:

That's not how probability works, at all. With a 2% chance, after 100 visits there's about an 86.74% chance to have found one or more exotic ships. Look up "binomial distribution".

It's a Gaussian function with the most likely occurence at the top. For example, if an event has a certain probability to occur within 200 years, then the most likely occurence time is after 100 years.

It's not Gaussian, it's binomial. There are literally two results: either it's an exotic, or it isn't. Gaussian functions are much more complex.

[japp_02]

Escrito originalmente por Orion Invictus:

Escrito originalmente por japp_02:

It's a Gaussian function with the most likely occurence at the top. For example, if an event has a certain probability to occur within 200 years, then the most likely occurence time is after 100 years.

It's not Gaussian, it's binomial. There are literally two results: either it's an exotic, or it isn't. Gaussian functions are much more complex.

Yeah, you are right, it's not Gaussian, I was wrong, the binomial formula you mention is correct. It's so easy to go wrong in the maths, I like playing with numbers more than making calculations...

[sstooney]

By empirical value I would say I've noticed 5-6 bot-Squids for ~1200Hrs in the game

[tkwoods]

Escrito originalmente por sstooney:

By empirical value I would say I've noticed 5-6 bot-Squids for ~1200Hrs in the game

I've seen probably 3 times that many in 7000 hours so that appears to be a similar number.
I have only found one NPS Stranded Squid ship and 2 Exotics crashed. All the rest were flying around.

[remid0d0s0]

I have close to 1000 hours of play time and have never seen a squid other than parked in the Anomaly. 🤷‍♀️ No, I'm not going to portal to a squid system; that would take all the fun out of eventually (maybe?) finding one. :) Just like I'm not going to portal to a royal MT.

I don't recall ever seeing a crashed exotic. That might or might not still be in the game. But I've had exotic traders land next to me at least twice that I can remember. I wasn't able to buy either one 😒 -- first time, too early in the game and no funds, second time very recently and the "no pilot" bug.

[sstooney]

Escrito originalmente por remid0d0s0:

I have close to 1000 hours of play time and have never seen a squid other than parked in the Anomaly. 🤷‍♀️ No, I'm not going to portal to a squid system; that would take all the fun out of eventually (maybe?) finding one. :) Just like I'm not going to portal to a royal MT.

I don't recall ever seeing a crashed exotic. That might or might not still be in the game. But I've had exotic traders land next to me at least twice that I can remember. I wasn't able to buy either one 😒 -- first time, too early in the game and no funds, second time very recently and the "no pilot" bug.

Maybe it is nessessary to visit more star systems (I have over 1k - was hunting for alien multitools) and the best chance of exotics is in tier 3 economy(I just avoid tiers 1-2)