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I believe that there was a small update about the American Campaign and ... well.... the game is not compatable with the replays before it. :(
Why can't Relic deal with this properly? This was the same issue with CoH 1. Thought they'd be smart enough to fix this but apparently not.
Doing so would require you to save version relevant data with every replay and implement a functionality to load a previous version of the game for it to play out. Problem is a replay itself is not a taped video, but an exact log of all issued commands, events, rng outcomes, etc. that the AI will use to recreate the battle.
Hence once the version changes the outcomes would change, rendering the replay incompatible.
Why can't Relic come up with a solution if others have no problem with it? It's just that they don't care.
Starcraft 2 saves this kind of information smartass. And you know what else it does? Save a lot less information overall, since there is no need to archive any propabilities, as in Starcraft everything is black and white.
As for CS demos you might want to look at how large the files are. Can be around 100 mb easily, whereas a CoH2 replay file is about 1.5 - 2.0 mb. You seriously want that kind of load everytime you play a game?
And the replay size doesn't really matter in times were you can get HDD's with several terrabytes of space. Also, in the end you would probably only keep replays that are really worth it and thus making the size of them even less an issue.
And RNG outcomes are not exactly that? You have to save the outcomes of propability based events. Which is basically every shot taken. In games like Starcraft it doesn't matter, since nothing is propability based.