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Edit: Viking fast imperial with an italian ally is incredibly strong. While researching Elite condotierro would slow down their rush, 115 hp is extremely high. I feel this would be much more difficult to deal with.
I wouldn’t mind the default condottiero being weaker, that’s a solid point. Especially, since The Italians are a tech-heavy civ that should peak in the late imperial. However, I think the elite would need to be stronger than it’s current stats, to be worth the research cost and to make it viable in later imperial. Right now, it has a 35 gold cost compared to the champion’s 20, so I think it would make sense for it’s stats to reflect that with the elite upgrade.
If you wan't to make condotierro viable late game an hp boost would definitely help accomplish that. Unfortunately for higher level team games the condotierro has to compete with Paladins. As it stands Infantry will simply never be able to compete with Paladins late game. It would be much easier to nerf Paladins directly (Which makes trash stronger and thus champions/infantry and in turn arbalests.) Unfortunately most balance patch developers/forgotten empires will likely never attempt to nerf Paladins. AFAIK only X-Patch on Voobly has attempted to nerf Paladins late game. (Which X-P attempts to accomplish with the trade nerf.)
I could only see condotierro in its current form being viable/dominant late game in Age of Kings before trade was buffed with Trade Caravan in the Conquerors expansion. Aside from drastic changes to trade/Paladins I don't think the Condotierro could be fully viable lategame.