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"Sold by Goblin, which of the four is sold depends on the current moon phase"
In classic mode Aurora has a 1/8 drop chance (An Arsenal weapon is guaranteed to drop, and there are 8). I just noticed Moon Bite actually doesn't drop from ML in classic. I guess I made such a change pre-emptivley as Moon Bite will be removed when tML and Arsenal finally port to 1.4.5 when that's out (Since that update will have an official ML-themed tentacle whip).
In Expert mode, both whips can drop at roughly 1/12 odds (1/6 to get either/or);
Each of the 4 classes has a 25% chance to get a weapon of that class; among those each weapon has an equal chance to drop. Due to there currently being 3 ML summoner drops (The whips and Dark Mirror), each has a 1/3 chance to drop if summon is chosen as the weapon class to drop.
By default it is possible to shimmer between the Void Mirror and Aurora. Meaning that with Shimmer, your odds of getting a whip are roughly 1/4 regardless of difficulty.
However, this also means Moon Bite is - unintentionally - unobtainable in Classic...
Im guessing its an npc item but im lost otherwise
The Cyborg sells it once Martian Madness has been beaten.
You may have missed it in the list as it's grouped alongside Ricochet in the same line, since they have the same sell condition (Took me a few passes to notice myself lol)