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The install threshold actually is easily reached by anyone who gets a game onto Gamepass or into an EPIC free deal. I do not know how they calculate the $200.000 threshold, and I do not know how deals like Gamepass work for devs. So I guess it might even be super easy to be reached by small devs if they get a "lucky" deal to have their game given out "free" to millions of gamers.
But yes, the game has to reach both the install and the revenue threshold, so has to make $1 per install for 200.000 installations. As this is on revenue, not profit though, a game that costs $10 needs to sell 20.000 copies worldwide and be installed 200.000 times. Again, if that game is also given out for free as part of a promo, the installation numbers can climb quickly without requiring any extra sales.
It's almost as if UNITY was targeting Gamepass and EPIC and GOG giveaways.
I'd take any interpretation of it (including the above) with a grain of salt - Unity will have to issue a lengthy clarification before 1 Jan.
As you say, they have some clarifying to do.
What sets off warning bells for me, is the discount for using more Unity services. But I am in tourism so have to work with the scum of the earth (aka booking dot com). Which makes me extra wary.
It definitely seems aimed at companies that use Unity and cheap (or stolen) assets to spam out mobile games.
Seems way too exploitable though. There's nothing to stop unity itself from getting people to install and uninstall a game to cut into a game's profit margins even more than they do already.
Yeah the danger of "install-bombing" becoming a thing is discussed in a lot of gaming cycles.
https://www.reddit.com/r/unity/comments/16j23ci/i_know_people_dont_want_to_hear_this_you_shouldnt/
Also the change applying retroactively won't hold up in courts.
I hope this is the case and they roll it back.