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As for sales being high, people are completionists, even if the ending game of a series was bad, they'll still buy it for the sake of "completing the story". If it's bad, it will be a disappointment, yes, so in a way, sales are not a good judge of specific games in a series as there are other "pull" factors involved, like series loyalty and curiosity.
Sky had Carnelia, which was Torval's story and The Doll Knight, which I suspect is an actual incident because it referenced the 13 Factories, Cold Steel had Red Moon Rose.
Sky is not necessarily about Joshua's and Estelle's story. Estelle and Joshua both barely have any lines in the Sky the 3rd and are very much irrelevant & unnecessary side characters in that game. They could have entirely removed Estelle & Joshua out of that game and other than changing a couple of the door mini-stories, they wouldn't have to change anything else in order to do that, which is so because they are ~95% totally irrelevant to that game (otherwise, if they were relevant, then it would be very hard, if not impossible, to remove them).
And anyway, it doesn't matter if "Trails of Beginning" is "good for the story" or anything like that. At the end of the day, what matters is: that title doesn't work at all from a sales-ability standpoint. If Falcom is interested in high sales, then it's in their own best interest to reverse course and fix that title for that reason.
CS1 - 4.4 (with total reviews at 62)
CS2 - 4.1 (with total reviews at 59)
CS3 - 3.8 (with total reviews at 399)
CS4 - 4.3 (with total reviews at 45)
Also, if check how many gave how much stars the majority voted for 5 stars.
It's not great, but it's also not something I would call disappointing. To my knowledge, the reasons why some JP players don't like CS3 or CS4 is due to a) the 3rd game of the CS arc was split into 2 parts (Kondo was actually asked this question in the shareholder meeting in 2017 if CS4 would really be the end of the Erebonia Arc) b) No vita port, Falcom did say something along the lines that they would try for a Vita version but it never really happened and c) A composer called Mitsuo Singa being allowed to compose more tracks (don't really understand this one as i personally don't have any problem in the music used in the game)
Now about Hajimari sales, like Val said, many people may see these games and then go back and play the old games. I think I've seen people who played cold steel 3 without playing the previous games and liked it so much that they went back to play the CS1 and CS2. I believe many in Japan will buy it as it concludes a very important story arc from the previous games, which i'll leave out from mentioning to be sure no one gets spoiled. So let's wait for Falcom's year end financial report and see how much sales has happened.
https://www.amazon.co.jp/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E3%83%95%E3%82%A1%E3%83%AB%E3%82%B3%E3%83%A0-%E8%8B%B1%E9%9B%84%E4%BC%9D%E8%AA%AC-%E9%96%83%E3%81%AE%E8%BB%8C%E8%B7%A1IV-PS4/dp/B07D886TLW/ref=sr_1_1?__mk_ja_JP=%E3%82%AB%E3%82%BF%E3%82%AB%E3%83%8A&crid=2WLGGWR40E3QR&dchild=1&keywords=sen+no+kiseki+4&qid=1587119223&sprefix=sen+no+ki%2Caps%2C313&sr=8-1#customerReviews
300+ reviews
all top reviews are super negative (like 5 pages deep)
Only positinve reviews are western ones
But overall stats on the left show a 50% 5 star rating, which is quite good already. Assuming anything below 4 stars is bad, you have a 63:37 good:bad split, which isn't too shabby.
You know that an "average" game would have a distribution like a bell curve? Having 50% 5 stars isn't "average", it's "very good". You're thinking of your individual exam scores where 50% or 60% is barely a pass, statistics is different, 50% is "average" and anything above that is good. Different scale.
What I do find worrying is, as you put it, the "English" reviews are the ones that keep skewing it to 5 stars, which might mean a Western fan base skewing the results. A pure Japanese search shows that the Japanese are less likely to 5 star the game.
Only 67 Japanese reviewer gave 5 stars, out of 286 Japanese reviewers, so thats like 23.4%. Even if 50% gave 5 stars, I would not call it 'very good', just 'good'.
Those rich westen fan bois definately messed up the review by all giving out 5 stars without even played the game. So it is much better by just looking at the most helpful Japanese reviews, pretty much all of them are negative.
It really shows how different the west and the Japan's taste in video games. The most popular and well received Falcom games are the YS series, while in the west, Trails series are probably more popular. On the other hand, most Japanese players really liked games like Death Stranding, FFXIII, many people in the west hated those games.
CS4 is only available for import atm. It makes sense that someone that cares enough about the franchise to import is more likely to give the game a higher rating. I dont know why this worries you.
Japanese fans arent magically better at judging things. I remember when Rance X was first released there were a lot of negative reviews, only for them to take a 180 and become 4.5-5 star reviews after those people realised the game was actually great.
However that is rare. Most of the time people dont change their minds.
If you want to know how good or bad the game is, play and judge it for yourself.
Can't disagree more.
Maybe this applies to mainstream, but what self respecting gamer cares about the mainstreams preference in gaming?
CS4 will be as divisive as CS2, if not even more so.
You basically got the 2 groups again, those who hate CS and those who love it, except opinions are even more extreme this time.
The fanbase will explode next year.
I am not saying which group is better, just pointed out that the Japanese gamers likes differently games than Western gamers which is generally true. For one, they like JRPG better than FPS.
Why should you care about what the players' review? It's for the same reason that you want to check for the review before you buy something. In Japan, there is few video critic and review site unlike in the West, so a lot of people just look at player reviews. Sure, everyone have different opinions, but the reviews will give you a general idea of the game.