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There are always spikes around the launch of new versions as well.
For many people it's not the game you play non-stop but something you binge on every now and then instead (and it's great at that).
I play when I am inspired to play. I will return.
I'll note too, I can see why DF isn't a very "streamable" game(Twitch etc.) - most colony sims really aren't fun streams to watch unless you already like the game - but I see that changing come Adventure Mode's release.
The best answer.
Numbers will ebb and flow, but in general they will tend to be drawn down with bursts of activity and higher player counts around "Content Addition" patches and major patch (bugfix/QoL) releases as these will get pushed up to current subscriber and, in general, genre fan's "Front Page" feeds. (Or, other high-profile feeds on Steam.) Plus, if it's in your library, you'll see the patch-release announced at the top of the library feed.
Keep in mind that "Average Players Playing" is not an aggregate number relative to "all players" and does not necessarily reflect how many players actually play the game over other periods of time.
So, 3k online now playing may not be the same 3k players playing tomorrow night. Over the two periods, the accounts that had played DF could actually be 4k players who played at least once, online, during that period. While the snapshots are accurate, some parsing needs to be done to understand what the numbers may really mean. (Bigger sampling periods are more betterer estimates for this purpose.)
Even so, big drops like that aren't "good news," even if a significant drop in player-count should always be expected for any game a good number of weeks/months away from its initial release.
Also - Different games are different... DF requires a lot of sitting, staring, figurin', planning, and problem solving during gameplay. It's not Skyrim... A player can jump into a Skyrim session and slay some beasties and StealthArcher their way through a hole in the ground in thirty-minutes. For DF, it takes thirty minutes just to figure out if you want to make Pots or stay with Wooden Barrels for the next few in-game days. Players likely need to "make time to play DF" and their session-length will likely be longer, requiring either very long bathroom-breaks or the player purposefully dedicating time to play. (ie: Weekend bursting, night play, nobody will jump into it on their lunch hour or in-between or during Zoom meetings, etc...)
For myself, that is the reason.
For others, given that evidence, I would say that is likely one of the issues. But, it may not be the most prominent. (I don't know, 'cause there's no opinion polling available on it.)
Something to keep in mind - There's not a commercial website, no matter how unbiased, that's ever going to say anything negative about this Steam release of DF. Nun.. ain't gonna happen...
While I'm not suggesting such a thing needs to be said/written about, the fact is that nobody is going to put any pressure on the devs/publisher to do anything that could actually affect them to or motivate them to do... something. The fans/players haven't ever been able to affect patching solutions or QoL in Bay12, "IMO," so no such expectation should exist. (As evident by... well, just look at it.) So, only other avenue of possible motivation will simply choose to not respond. IOW - They're completely free to not do anything at all to fix serious issues with no recourse. Take that as you will. (Sounds a bit harsh, but that's just the way it is... Fact, at least IMO here, is just fact.)
Guess what? :)
The number of threads created that are exactly like yours, questioning the playerbase numbers and existing enthusiasm evidenced by declining play hours, is inversely proportional to the numbers in those automated reports multiplied by the number of days since the game was released... With one caveat - They stop, generally, before a year from the release date has passed. Allowances must be made for occasional threads popping up, posted by enthusiasts. (Additional metrics may apply) :)
Don't worry too much about it, as hardly anyone associated with creating a single-player offline game is very concerned about it... Sales figures generate positive-feedback for developers, not play-hours and concurrent players online long after release. Though, and it's mostly indiy devs, there's nothing wrong with devs/publishers being pleased and rewarded with seeing enthusiastic consumers enjoying themselves. (Plenty of single dev indies out there gush over all the praise and are significantly, positively, impacted by how much their players are enjoying their product.)
Not in the least.
However, its depth and the number of variables involved in most gameplay mechanics are far beyond what may be involved in many similar mechanics in other games. It's player interactions as well as, in general, the sorts of decision-trees the player navigates are not too "technical" for most gamers. The UI and bugs, tho... Those are a gameplay minefield that takes some work to get through. (Note: The player must "look" for information in DF that is often made easier to see in other similar games. Also - there's a ton of it. Some is significant, some is not.)
It does have some non-intuitive gameplay mechanics and tasks, though. And, the most glaring difference between DF and the play experience gamers might have in other, similar, games is the impact of behaviors and evolving features/variables (nothing else to call it) that can impact seemingly "simple" actions. (Aside from the effects of worldgen on gameplay, which is something of a very different animal than found in any other game.)
Players being confronted with "I didn't know that could happen in this game" so very many times tends to help grow the mythology of "complex and hard to understand." The game is complex, but not in the sense that it's a "difficult" type of complexity to deal with when playing. There's just a lot of stuffs going on...
Agreed.
Always.
I love indies, but the decision to become a commercial game developer does not come with a bag of excuses just because they're new, small, etc... That sounds harsh, but numbers don't have hearts.
The game is now in the commercially-released spectrum of computer games and is subject to that environment's standards, such as they are.
Well, let's say some "idealized version of some standards" that are rarely, if ever, actually "enforced" by anyone with any real authority to do so. :)
There are plenty of games that are complete garbage, broken, unplayable using today's OS's, have repeatable catastrophic bugs, etc, that are still being sold on Steam. The only requirement is that something like "game" happens when the "Play" button is pressed if the game is installed on a computer with the game's listed minimum system requirements. That. Is. It. end_of_line All the empowered participants in that process have been successfully served at that point, no take-backsies...
Ideally, though, the consumer expects more. They don't really have unrealistic expectations, either - They want the features promised and want those features working. They want the most egregious and "visible" bugs fixed. (Plenty of games have little-known bugs and features that don't actually "work," but are sufficiently masked/invisible that the player doesn't know or isn't reminded of them very often.)
However - Neither Bay12 or Kitfox are under any obligation to do anything further, ever. They simply aren't. They could disappear tomorrow and nobody could ever do anything at all about that nor would they, even if truly empowered to do so. (Provided none have made any actionable claims that are unfulfilled, that is.)
So... keep this in mind, even with all the stuffs above - IF a developer/publisher fixes/patches/adds something post-release, there are generally three motivations involved -
1) Because they really want to improve the product and make the consumers of it happy. (Or, in some rare cases, the developer is actually doggedly determined to get the thing to do the thing they wanted it to do, regardless if anyone else is happy or not. :))
2) Marketing bumps. (It's just the way the metrics work. New content, big patches, equates to marketing pushbots/algorithms and greater exposure with industry, streamers, guides, 'tubers, etc.) Never underestimate the impact of this sort of thing, especially when you see a game released a few years ago get a big content/patch/DLC update.
3) Reputation is a very distant third place... Honestly, and only IMO, few high-profile devs care and few of the big houses give a crap just as long as their product's release does not make them eligible for legal action, civil or criminal. Indies generally care a good bit because it's all they've got and they want to capture an audience for future use. Even so, it doesn't carry a lot of weight anymore and won't be pursued by many if it comes with a great financial cost. (They'll just give you two sparkly gems worth of free in-game mushroom currency and a free vanity-skin for your pet as compensation for crap-work, so what's the big deal? :))
I am confident we will see some big content and bug-fix patches for DF that will have an impact on "hours played" and "players currently playing" numbers, if but briefly. Gamers are fickle animals.
When that will happen is entirely unknown.