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It's a vanilla bug. I got some help from Infixo in understanding it.
Unknown what the root cause is.
When you load a saved game, the game throws all the homeless cims and companies into buildings, regardless of what their capacity is currently at. You end up with over capacity buildings.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3227138753
Now they aren't considered homeless yet by the game, so they are counted in your population counter in the bottom of the screen. Now the game very quickly corrects it and evicts those extra households so they are no longer counted as part of the building's capacity, but they are still attached to the buildings, can't leave the building, and still count as part of your population number at the bottom.
Now the only thing that triggers them to actually leave and become homeless, is a removal event trigger such as a death of one of the residents in the building. This finally detaches them and officially makes them part of the homeless population, which is not counted in the population counter in the bottom. To the player, it looks like a massive population collapse when you start having deaths in high density buildings. One cim dying in a building causes something like 50 households' worth of cims to disappear from your city's population as they are now considered truly homeless and start getting tracked differently.
It manifests in the city statistics tracker as a population decline across all age demographics but they didn't actually leave your city.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3227148237
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3227143695
You can see in this screenshot following the end of a death wave, 43,116 homeless households which makes up 52,416 homeless cims. Then what you think is your population recovering as cims move back into the city is actually all the homeless cims trying to find places to live.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3227144989
See here the AI pathfinding process for locating housing for homeless cims becomes the #1 process for generating queries. This can take a long time to work through it all depending on the size of the city.
While the game focuses a lot of resources on finding housing for these cims, the simulation also slows down from all the queries. I lose about 20% simulation speed in a 370k city.
thank you very much, i guess we have same mods.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3228953818
these are my statistics. i activated overpopulated gizmo again, now i will observe the situation for a while.