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Or at least the more popular one of the civs that you are closest to on the map.
Unless you're going Domination Victory, then there is the option of picking whatever you want and "convincing" everyone else to follow it.
Sometimes it needs to be the biggest concern. I've picked the unpopular one and it all fell apart.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2831386153
I was playing as the Netherlands here, and the world ideology was order.
It really doesn't matter, culture and tourism are too much of an influence in this and are usually the reason the AI is going to massively suck with whatever they are choosing which isn't yours.
This is why is choose freedom, they AI barely picks it and they they all have -30 happiness.
For example, I pick autocracy when I go for domination victory.. the double of strategy resources is exceptionally useful... and unit cost less to maintain too..
If I go cultural or tall, freedom is where I go.. sometimes I go sciences victory with it since you can use gold to purchase space part.....
As for order, I go for it when I go wide or when I am aiming for science or diplomacy victory.. in some rare occassion I pick it for cultural victory if all ai have order as their ideology due to cultural revolution and Dictatorship of the Proletariat...
if happiness is at your top priority, better off founding religion and pick Asceticism & Religious Center right at the start of the game..
Analyze the influence by civ data. I think it's one of the tabs in the tourism menu. For each civ that already has an ideology, compare influences (unknown, exotic, familiar, popular, influential, dominate). For example, if your civ is familiar to an opponent, but that opponent is unknown to you, that civ has two units of influence over you. If the influence levels are equal or if you have more influence over that opponent, it won't contribute towards public opinion.
For each ideology, add up the net influences over you. Whichever one is highest will be the public opinion choice.
Thanks all.
I always play domination games, and I have been doing as Amanoob suggests, picking the most popular ideology. Only when I fail to do that do I get the -30 happiness penalty. I have yet to be in a position to be the first make an ideology choice. In my last game, I chose the ideology of my two best friend civs but that wasn't the most popular choice so happiness crashed.
I will check on the influence window from now on, but I guess going with the crowd is a good rule of thumb.