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How far are you into Story-mission and Game-date?
If you haven't been to Antartica yet and will have to go later, you may need to activate/protect southernmost base in South America.
The population is currently at 59%
Game Date Is 09.03.2477
Objectives are:
1 - Bionic Fortress
2 - Corruption of Mind
3 - Scorpion
Not sure if research helps advance the story or not, but...
4 - Siren Autopsy
5 - Pandoran Citadel
6 - Pandoran Virus
7 - Command Fortress
I have 100% diplomacy on all factions
-------------------
Trying to use my Australian base to access Antarctica, instead of South America.
What usually goes wrong in your previous runs?
If you have too few Research-facilities you might run out of time/population.
When you say "Pandoran Virus" on the research list, do you mean "Pandoran Virus Infection" or "Pandoravirus"? They're very different things. And if you don't know that research helps advance the story...yes. It does. Research is really the main story blocker. Pandoravirus is a keystone storyline research without which you can't do a lot of things and cannot win the game. For most endings you need to run through all the 'follow Symes' trail' research and missions, and you probably want to do so expeditiously even though some of them have no concrete benefit in themselves.
Phoenix Point, even more so with Festering Skies, isn't a game where achieving strategic dominance first and doing the plot second works well.
The red zone is mist. Missions in area covered by mist are slightly more dangerous since you'll have mist pockets which reduce visibility, pandorans can hide inside.
Eventually you'll discover mist repellers which are built in bases and 'grow' a circle around your base which is freed of mist (progress grows akin to satellite uplinks).
Pandoran installations (nests/lairs/citadels) can only spawn in mist, but can attack everything inside their range, mist or not.
I *think* mist over havens reduces their food production, thus increasing starvation and dropping the population census (doom clock) faster, so you'll probably want some repellers if you can afford them.
Hope that helps.