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What is not to be missed is that Luck doesn't just change how often you get good versus bad events, but it changes what kind of event you can get. Certainly, the value of Luck is not fixed, but as I reckon it, you're simply not winning a multiplayer game on skill alone versus other skilled players. Diplomacy is one other factor, but actual luck is a very significant third. That being the case, why not take a gamble that can turn out very well for you?
240 design points are 240 design points. It's harder by far to estimate the value of maybe getting enough money to start a second or third fortress early, a mage from an event with novel paths or crosspaths not otherwise available to your nation, a new gold mine site, or a Robe of the Magi, but I've never found myself regretting taking Luck 3.
You can get unlucky in real life, of course. And if you need the points to pay for an awake expander who can also fend off attacks by other nations, you may well be able to afford some Misfortune.
But I, for one, do not consider Luck worse than any other scale, except maybe Growth. Just how useful it is depends on your nation and strategy, of course. Same as with any other scale.
Is there any point to taking Luck scales if you are not taking Magic scales, or perhaps even taking Drain?
I guess you might avoid gemloss events, but what kind of positive things would you get with Luck 3/Drain 3?
But yeah, there is a heavy Mis3 currently.
Many nations also can't take Sloth, because they need the resources for early expansion (and perhaps for later armies too). Many nations can't take Drain without crippling their most economical researchers. So that leaves lots of nations needing to cut points in Luck, just as the least bad way to make ends meet.
For me, luck is usually either chosen with turmoil on a nation whose units don't require many rec-points, or as the last positive pick in a pure scales build: better than nothing, but not worth much when you already have Order reducing the occurrence of random events.
So I'd imagine that nations with recruitable fortunetellers have an easier time going misfortune, even if they do wind up having to recapture a number of provinces that indies take over the course of a game.
A few things are wrong or misleading about this post.
1. "Only" 2d6 of each gem.
2. Drain + luck is only one of the three ways to trigger this event. Drain 3 Misfortune 1.
3. The other ways to unlock this event are: Drain 1 and Drain 3.
Source: mod inspector. Use flags: req_unmagic and/or req_unluck
t. lost in 3rd turn to troll king invasion