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HP, special abilities, leadership, magic etc all increases the score. AoE gives a score for the total effect (score for all targets). MR and other stuff that reduces damage or chance of a score is taken into acount. Low MR with huge HP generates a far higher score than commander with high MR and few HP.
HP is somewhat important and, to a degree, represents how intimidating or easily spotted a monster/commander appears.
I think that is the basics of how it works (JK knows better).
Interesting, but what about proximity? Spamming soul slay won't just target the biggest, baddest enemies on the entire field.
It usually will. That's one of the nifty things about Soul Slay, and part of the reason that elephants are generally considered an early-game unit.
Proximity does matter for a lot of spell. Soul Slay, however, is precision 100, so it doesn't matter where on the battlefield the target is, because Soul Slay will always hit. I don't think the AI takes personal threat levels into account, though mages of certain paths will generally default to attacking nearby enemies anyway because there are some very nasty but very short-ranged spells available with which the mage can deal a lot of damage (e.g. Shockwave).
With spells like fireball proximity plays a role because of its impact on precision. The closer an enemy is, the more likely the mage is to hit them, and thus the average damage caused by the decision of casting fireball at that enemy will go up.
Anyway, this is a large part of why elephants are usually considered early-game units. They are big and nasty, but they're also expensive and vulnerable to a very wide variety of spells. Most paths have at least a couple of "save-or-die" spells, to use D&D terminology, and the elephant is vulnerable to pretty much all of them.
Soul Slay will not always target the biggest and baddest enemies, mind you. I think there's a certain random factor. But more importantly, if the target has a huge amount of magic resistance (say, if it has 60 HP and MR 20+) then the mage would probably target another enemy because the Soul Slay is very unlikely to have any effect.
Point of note: Blood Magic has a reputation as a big-unit killer, and this is partially because e.g. "Life for a Life" does 40 points of armor-negating, unblockable, 100 precision damage. This will almost always be cast at the highest HP target in range of the caster. To draw from an actual example, I once used three or four Priests (equipped with booster items) as Mictlan to snipe Tartarians to death. There were hundreds of units on the battlefield, but the Tartarians were the biggest and nastiest monsters around, and they were the first to be targeted, as I knew they would be.
So you are saying that a mage is as likely to use Soul Slay on a Heavy Cavalry in the enemy's rear as it is on a Heavy Cavalry 1-2 spaces away?
But I think in that case it is indeed 50/50.
I have seen Word of Power (Astral Smite) spells frequently target the closest enemies (happens a lot during expansion if there are "leakers" who get past your main army). And Word of Power obviously is Precision 100 and Range 100, so neither misses or being out of range is a factor.
It could be coincidence, but I'm inclined to think that proximity influences targeting somewhat, in the absence of other factors.
This felt quite wrong to me, so I finally found some time to test. I used MA Pythium to spam Soul Slay on various Machaka formations. My conclusion is that proximity is a dominant factor in spell targeting. Units that were 5 squares more distant than an identical unit were never targetted by Soul Slay. A single unit slightly closer (~2 squares) than 20+ identical units was targetted more than 50% of the time (the result being that it died very quickly). I also saw this effect when the enemy routed; closer enemies were always targetted and slain first.
Overall, this matches my previous experiences with Soul Slay in Dominions 4.
Also, given the size of battlefields, 110 Precision should never deviate from a target -- at least according to the formula in the manual.