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50% chance is really low. I had a 70% chance and 2 out of 3 times i got a Silver star Book/Chapter.
I think they kinda determine what it is going to be based on the number of previous crafts(based off your description, wich you crafted one, reloaded the file and tried again), because i don't think you can get this unlucky.
Otherwise for the chapters, try to get Writer and Playwright and and your the Prayer of imagination.
For book Crafting try to get Jeweler.
Can't stress this enough ...any story processed without all of these seems so wasteful to me.
You're penalized with an inherent-down-scale in quality thanks to the desk/desk2 at each step, which is just ridiculous - makes it practically impossible to craft gold notes / chapters, even with gold stories. However, with all three writing buffs, it becomes relatively easy to input copper stories and output gold chapters / non-book sermons. Even regarding the book-sermons, leaving out Imagination and Excellence (which are unaffected by buffs), starting with a soft-cover, copper chapter, and no Jeweler perk, you'll end up with a pretty good chance at a silver sermon.
Unfortunately, that depends on your luck. So keep making - you'll get goldie.
Inform us if not ;)
I fixed it (and am writing this comment in case anyone else has this problem)
It might just have been bad luck, but instead of trying any more I just grinded some blue points and got the jeweler (or is it called "best friend"?) perk, which gave me a 100% chance to make a gold book.