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I just gambled on the crafting process a few times. If it fails then you create a silver chisel, so you only lose the few extra items involved.
EDIT - You'll encounter a similar issue creating the statues with the gold chisel. It maxes out at 70% without the prayer that improves craftsmanship.
It's annoying to do but I do it because I'm wasting resources on probability just because I somehow need 3 gold statues.
Which did you try?
https://imgur.com/a/LI0fVLn
Top one or bottom one in the picture?
You have to do the silver star one first, then you go to the bottom one and let's you select either the bronze or silver quality steel chisel and then you can make gold quality steel chisel. (you see the down arrow on the bottom chisel that's a dead giveaway you can change the one the quality items to increase your chance at getting a better quality craft), same with food.
That one is weird but its definitely a graphical bug (oversight), because the bottom chisel is supposed to represent the gold chisel but I guess you technically could get silver quality if it doesn't work properly.
Assuming I'm interpreting your image correctly.