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50% droprate from shiny
50% from palico bonus
40% from plunderblade
30% from tailcarves
conclusion
hunt with plunderblade palico gear
Make sure you're doing this via Investigations too, and while I'm not 100% on this, I imagine using the Tailrider Safari to hunt Diablos might result in Carapace drops too.
Other things include using the Plunderblade Palico gadget, popping Lucky Vouchers, wearing 2 pieces of Legiana gear and 3 pieces of Kirin gear then capturing the Diablos, or wearing 4 pieces of Gala / Guild Cross gear, etc etc.
The game is ultimately built upon RNG. You'll get it eventually. Normally it's Majestic and Black Spiral Horns people miss out on, though. I had a friend who managed to hit the triple digit HR without ever knowing that Deviljho Saliva was a material, he got confused and excited when he picked some up from a Silent Deadly and Fierce event, lol. RNG is fun!
I committed genocide for nothing.
And I'm gonna do it again.
I advise against using the wiki for most drop rate guides as a lot of it's pretty incomplete regarding everything except desirable items like Gems (and even then it's kinda unreliable. I could swear I've gotten Wyvern Gems as quest rewards from Dodogama captures but it's not listed on the wiki for example).
As a general rule to follow to make sure this doesn't happen again, if it's Rarity 4 it's Low Rank, if it's Rarity 6 or above it's High Rank. If an item has no HR equivalent (eg. Great Jagras Manes) then you can generally get it from either LR or HR even if it's Rarity 4.