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Don't bother explaining basic economics to people here, OP: some use this forum as a dayjob but know nothing about nothing - besides how to shadow police this place and harass each other with fake accounts. Answering you question properly: yes, the prices will drop, as they did when crownfall I got out. Arcanas, in general, lost 25% of their price value when crownfall got out - one reason is the one you mentioned: some people sell their items so they can afford new stuff (happens every content release). But there is also a lot of people getting Arcana duplicates in the Candy Store, so they end up selling the previously owned (tradeable) one, which flood the market and bring down prices - increase in offer and decrease in demand equals lower prices.
Candystore Budget is selling like crazy - it's not only regular users, but everyone that gets boosted by playing in a party with someone of higher skill and even paid smurfs, since now they can boost much easier for their clients, with the benefit of getting the chance of getting some extra cool stuff.
Indeed.
so yes I think you better wait till crownfall ends
A perfect exemple of the "Sheep Behavior". You "might get 10 coins", "might get amaterasu (rare courier)", "might get free arcanas": that is why a lot of people are selling out their items, specially arcanas, to buy the Candywork Budget.
They lack the vision of "You might buy the Arcanas for 25%/40% less, now, instead of gambling ridiculous odds."
Most Dota 2 collectors are shortsighted and reckless gambling addicts: they can't even fathom that the arcana prices will increase after the event ends, since a lot of people that sold their arcanas to gamble will buy them back, which will increase demand and prices again.
There you go. Congratulations on not being sheep, my friend.
Me too: helping degenerate gamblers understand reality so they can improve as people is an act of kindness. By the way, if you want to save even further, wait for the new hero to drop - probably on ACT 2 or ACT 4: I say that because the new hero is a clown and ACT 3 will happen in Icewrack - the Crystal Maiden / Winter Wyvern / Tusk region - not a really fitting place to drop a Circus Themed lore. Jester goes where the Clowns... I mean, the audience is. My bet is on ACT 2, since it's due time, and ACT 2 will happen in a "Cairo / Baghdad" region, the deserts from where Lina / Sand King are from. Makes more sense to pitch a tent in trading routes than in a glacier. Also, from a storytelling point of view, the "Wise Mentor" and "New Player" usually joins on ACT II, while "Downfall and Rebirth" are usually ACT IV material, so it would be very lackluster to drop the New Hero at the end of the event, instead of taking him for the whole ride since ACT II.
In market terms, the new hero will boost the concurrent player base, that means more arcanas being sold to purchase the new stuff (I wrote about him probably being released with an Arcana, and I would not be surprised it that was the case, since heroes that release with an Arcana has always gathered more attention), more people gambling and selling the "Marketable Arcana" and keeping the "Unmarketable, worthless one" or, 99% of the cases, people will end up selling their arcana to buy stuff and, as I mentioned before, buying the Arcana after the event ends.
You know those "Scratchy" tickets, that you can scrach and get an arcana... I mean, 100.000 dollars? The trick in those is to have some "Break Even" - give you an extra ticket, or "10 coins in Dota": so people will gamble even more based on the illusion of getting "free tickets". Have you ever seen someone break even in the scratch tickets and NOT buy another scratch right after? It never happens because of Dopamine: the brain is hijacked not to believe "I did not lose the initial investment, so I should just quit": instead, the person thinks "Hey, I rolled for free, i'm lucky, time to roll again".
It's pretty much lottery and casino 101.
I really adore shortsighted people: they talk about the spam of half a decade, and don't account for inflation and deflation.
You see, OP, another thing you gotta learn about this forum:
There are a lot of people that only use this forum because they are trying to make a living selling / buying items. So they spread misinformation, and gang on people that speak the truth:
It takes some higher level of intelligence to understand that the best gamblers are those who don't gamble. Take Poker for instance: the most sucessful players are those who play the best odds, manage their pot instead of going random.
People that say that Arcana prices don't drop are either being mischevious or ignorant: if you go to the market not, and search, you will see that Arcanas are almost 50% cheaper than the store price, and that keeps on dropping and dropping.
The graphic stable around 30 bucks. Its up and down sometimes depends on the seller.
That is why you don't know how to read graphics: you just linked the "Monthly", and you just linked one specific Arcana. Try setting it to "Lifetime" (which isn't "Lifetime", by the way, just a couple more months) and instead of looking at the pretty line going up and down, actually mouse-over the line to see how many sold in each period. By doing this you actually get information instead of reading it like a cartoon.
There are also third-party websites that allow you to track even better - they are legal, by the way, I just won't link it because you know, there are a lot of people in this forum that baits people into fake reporting. Some are even proud to have led other users being banned this way. And with the ammount of fake accounts that are used to promote oneself or degrade others, you know, it's better to avoid the risk.
Google is your friend, OP.