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1.Buy from market for ~240
2.Trade up after buying t3s on market and risk 50/50 of getting cm ~150 for 5 t3. Cm is ~45 so you might lose 105 in value if you don't want. 50/50 gamble where you know the stakes might feel better for you idk.
3. Buy chests and keys. Would take 125 chests to craft at around ~3$ each so easily 375, if you don't draw t2 or t3, odds of which haven't been published.
3 could be best if odds are good because you would need less chests, but the odds don't seem to be good? It's anecdotal both ways.
Whole system is predatory and not worth it. If you have the funds just buy outright or wait a few months after event in hopes the price drops. If you want to be a real chad however I'd say save your money altogether.
I wouldn't even think about fairness until there was a f2p way to get it, or if it was less expensive than the battlepass it came from. Battle Pass 2020 owners who have reached Level 375 (Wraith King - The One True King). I got all 3 arcanas, all the immortal treasures and 2 personas for I want to say 150 ish, it was less than $200 Im pretty sure. The arcana bundled as part of the battlepass was realistically ~20$ with all the other stuff. 40$ max. I guess there are people that only did it for this arcana. Those people are weird outliers and don't think they factor into the argument.
keys and open treasure will be the most expensive way to get the wk, unless u are really lucky
last option, buy tier 2 or tier 3 then convert to tier 4...it is a 50-50, but if u get cm u will be making loss....then u might have to do it the 2nd time to get the wk
so in my opinion, just wait for another 1 to 2 years, the price will go further down and stable...now the price it about 230-250usd...i think the price will be somewhere around 100-180usd after 1 year or 2 years time
Don't buy now, thank me later.
Worst case scenario, you will be buying boxes for 0.01 cents and keys for the same price later.
I got no idea..just buy from market if u want the arcana.....now it is cheap anyway....valve make about 1 billion USD from cs chest last year...that should give u the idea about the odds of making profit out of opening chest...only small amount of people get profit from opening chest...but so far I heard 2 people got wk on their 2nd try ...and nobody get 2 cm...at least I did not heard about it...up to u if u want to try your luck
I opened maybe 200 chests and naturally pulled one tier 3 item. Now you could open chests but I'm not entirely sure you have access to the upgrade item path option anymore. If that's the case then you'd pretty much be relying on rng or spending €100+ on the item.
Considering the amount that we as collectors spent to unlock this in the battlepass I'd say you're still getting a deal on the marketprice.
I'm glad it was you and not me.
Has to be someone, not the most that's been spent on chests by a long shot....