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It's hard to speculate, but prices will drop all around.
It's a predatory gamble system.
All Tier 1 are gamble, "dead draw", that you spend money to get a random set.
You update that, so you "randomly gets" a Tier 2.
And so on.
People buying keys are doing it for content or because they want it NOW. And it is just sad to watch this horrific, GOTCHA, gambling lootbox system.
Sell your chests. They will drop the price. Then buy when they are very cheap and hold. If it stop dropping completely, you made some price.
But people are overselling it, and you should too.
This is the classic "give so take doesn't seem bad": they gave us an updated on the smurf / alt / boosting situation, and we enjoyed that very much; they gave an update on gameplay, being balanced. So we got to enjoy. And people don't know how to handle mix feelings: a lot of people are actually defending Valve for giving us a "lot of us", and calling some people "entitled" when Valve jush made a predatory, gambling system lootbox.
This isn't Frostivus: It is just a lootbox drop with a good presentation.
https://steamcommunity.com/app/570/discussions/0/4038104133465778124/
https://steamcommunity.com/app/570/discussions/0/4038104133465654911/
This isn't Frostivus: It is just a lootbox drop with a good presentation.
i love money,and people that make and take and shake money.
There are no keys that's bought with shards for 'Hallowed Chest of the Diretide', only with cash. The one that can be opened with shards is the 'Dead Reckoning Chest'.
Yes, that was a typo. Thanks for pointing that out. Truth is, as you pointed out, the Hallowed Chest of Diretide doesn't have the key for sale either.
Both chests should get a key. 20.000 shards is already hard to farm. The key is just a way for EVERYONE to benefit from it if they so choose, as a real free to play experience: you play, you earn, you open.
This lootbox concept can be worse than the "Immortal Chest" model. At least when you buy immortal chests, you get "Increasing Odds", and a table that show you where you are. This not only doesn't have increasing odds, but you destroy the items during the "Upgrade". Sure you had the option to recycle before, but you always had "something to keep" after opening each chests.
On one hand, they made a patch that players actually like - gameplay wise, not messing the map too much, while adding new items and balance, quality of life changes and a lot of micro updates to orient the game in a better direction, also adressing smurfs / boosts honestly like rare few companies do; on the other hand, they did not release an event, no terrain or creeps, and aside from the 14 rewards (sprays and sticks), players get only a box to resell for people willing to spend a fortune in gambling.
Last diretide we had the "Candy Game", where people would choose and craft and play around, I even got a second terrorblade bound to account - which is bad, because I can't sell.
My point, in short, is that it was effortless when it comes to "alternative play" and for collectors. Having the key for 20.000 is the bare minimum.