Better RNG if you buy with real money vs free decks

[Noobi McNooblet]

At first I didn't believe what they said, although they had a great point after the 1000$ contest where they showed how the "top"players get many top tier and low K cards at the start.
But since then I started noticing it's kind of obvious.

Even without visible payed decks (cover etc) I could predict most of the times if it will be a paid deck just by my own luck at the starting draw.

I played lots of Japan decks with mostly low Cost, and it's amazing how when I play vs paid decks, even if I'll switch my whole starting 4, I'd usually wont get any of my 1-2K (about 35% of my deck), and jsut by that could tell the other player will get all of them.

And then I tried something, cuz it was so strange. I changed to my old steam account (which i forget the pass too for a long time) and started playing there, and bought a small pack for real money,
Let me tell you - even with trash starter cards there, I get much better "luck" in the first round. suddenly I'll get those 1-2 cost very often, even when using decks that have only 20% low cost (cuz it's only 1 week after starting there, missing lots of cards).

So if you are paying, you may think hell no, it's just luck. but if you are a free player, you know what I'm talking about,

If you are F2P, try this - try to predict if the other guy will have top cards or "regular" mixed free deck, just by your own first cards luck.

I'm pretty sure it also change draft "luck", cuz I tried playing some free drafts with Japan and will rarely get even decent amount of 1-2 options, while if the paying account I could build much better blitz decks.

Before you dismiss this, just try this yourself. also paying player try a new free account if you have the option, see if your luck changes.

[Bruticus]

In statistics, the phrase "correlation does not imply causation" refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them.

I have paid for cards, and I do not experience what your observations indicate.

[Berni de Balle]

What absurd thoughts do people come up with so that they do not have to admit that other players sometimes or often play better, have better prepared or are just a little bit more lucky ...
Then of course they have to be cheaters and conspirators.

[Hisendam]

If there was an award for the most creative excuse why I suck at a game the OP would deserve it! Two of last month top 8 players are a 100% ftp. I wonder how they managed to beat those nasty algorithms giving them bad cards all the time ;-).

[Noobi McNooblet]

So for those who thinks this is BS, I just give you some small stat for my last 3 games.

I used a deck with exactly 13 cards cost 1-2. just for easy math, so we have a 1/3 chance I'l draw one, right?

My first game. I draw 4, no cost 1-2. I mulligan all, get new 4, still no 1-2. I play one turn, stil non so that's 0/9 for a 1/3 chance.
The other guy have a payed deck cover, he play blitz, 2nd round already 2 cards on board, 1 in front line, 1 artillery.
I surrender to not waste time.

2nd match : exact same thing, payed deck cover, I draw 4, no 1-2's. mulligan all, no 1-2's.
2nd round he blitz I still have no 1-2 cards out of 9 total. that's 0/9 for a 1/3 chance.
Surrender.

3rd match : almost the same. I didn't surrender fast this time, but lost at round 10 to a blitz.
4+4 mulligan = 0 1-2 cards, I played first, so til round 10 I got a total of 8 more card draws, of those I got a total of 2 cards cost 1-2.
remind you I have total 13/40, so final count is I got 17 cards, of those only 2 cost 1-2. so 2/17.

FINAL COUNT : 0/9 + 0/9 + 2/17 = 2/35 1-2 cards in total.....!!!
I have a 1/3 chance to get a 1-2 card (13/40 in deck) and yet I got a total of 2/35.

Anyone good at math to check the odds of that happening?

[Hisendam]

Originally posted by Prinz Eugen:

1st match - 13/40*13/39 (8 in mulligan + 1st draw)
2nd match - 13/40*13/39 (8 in mulligan + 1st draw)
3rd match - 13/40*13/39*13/38*13/37*13/36*...*12/24*11/23 (12 and 11 eleven because you eventually got the 1-2K cost card).


Odds are low like hell, but hey - WHO CARES :)


PS.
buy a draft for USD and see how easy it gets xD

This calculation is wrong. I am kinda too lazy to explain stochastics to someone who rather believes in conspiracy theories than working on his strategic skills, though ;-). If you want to get good at (strategy) card games, you really need to understand basic stochastics and be able to do the math how likely it is that your opponent is holding a certain key card at certain stages of a match or not.

[Noobi McNooblet]

Originally posted by Prinz Eugen:

1st match - 13/40*13/39 (8 in mulligan + 1st draw)
2nd match - 13/40*13/39 (8 in mulligan + 1st draw)
3rd match - 13/40*13/39*13/38*13/37*13/36*...*12/24*11/23 (12 and 11 eleven because you eventually got the 1-2K cost card).


Odds are low like hell, but hey - WHO CARES :)


PS.
buy a draft for USD and see how easy it gets xD

Like I said in my main post I already paid on a different acc just to check the theory, and indeed even with new decks I still get nice draws and very nice draft ones

[i do games]

Originally posted by @lf@ @st@:

So for those who thinks this is BS, I just give you some small stat for my last 3 games.

ah yes, the tried and true "3 game sample size" renowned for it's accuracy and reliability. scientists around the world will rely on this trusted metric from now into infinity.

[Jidiche]

0 pay, often 7wins in draft. I can be luckier if I buy something? XD

[Jidiche]

Originally posted by Berni de Balle:

What absurd thoughts do people come up with so that they do not have to admit that other players sometimes or often play better, have better prepared or are just a little bit more lucky ...
Then of course they have to be cheaters and conspirators.

Exactly.

[Noobi McNooblet]

Originally posted by @m0n5t3r:

Originally posted by Berni de Balle:

What absurd thoughts do people come up with so that they do not have to admit that other players sometimes or often play better, have better prepared or are just a little bit more lucky ...
Then of course they have to be cheaters and conspirators.

Exactly.

My post is about better draw luck, and my example about pure numbers, how can you be better prepared when we talk about pure RNG? how can I be better prepared to better RNG?

Please explain having 13/40 cards of 1-2 cost and getting 2 of those in 35 draws, and how can I be better prepared for that

[Noobi McNooblet]

Originally posted by i do games:

Originally posted by @lf@ @st@:

So for those who thinks this is BS, I just give you some small stat for my last 3 games.

ah yes, the tried and true "3 game sample size" renowned for it's accuracy and reliability. scientists around the world will rely on this trusted metric from now into infinity.

And if I gave 5 or 7 tries, will you say otherwise, or was your answer didn't even count for the facts and just for the shock and meme value...?

I based my conclusion on 320 hours gameplay, I didn't even think when I started counting it will be that obvious.

Do you have any explanation how the hell I could get only 2 cards of 1-2 cost in 3 tries totaling 35 card draws, math wise?, when I have 13 in a 40 card deck?

I didn't even continue but if you want the next 3 matches I played vs free players with trash decks, and I won and I knew thy are free players with trash decks jsut by the fact I got normal draws. even without seeing any card, i got 2 cards cost 1-2 and said - ok, this guy wont have any good elite or sure not more then one. and I was right.

That's the whole point of my thread, I can tell the other guy deck "value" just by my own draw "luck", which should be stupid and impossible, yet so often true.

[i do games]

Originally posted by @lf@ @st@:

And if I gave 5 or 7 tries, will you say otherwise, or was your answer didn't even count for the facts and just for the shock and meme value...?

More like a couple thousand games with proper logging of all mathematical probabilities regarding card draw rather than 3 games and a spooky mysterious hunch.

For example, you have a 32% chance to draw one of those 1-2 cost cards. That is an extremely low chance. If you can prove over a statistically significant number of games that you are drawing them less than 32% of the time, after factoring in variance, then you have a valid complaint.