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Here's how I would describe it.
For the first 50 hours:
When you first start, there is a new player pool that is very small. You will be pitted againt relative newbies with small collections similar to your own. This part is fun and you are discovering a lot of new (to you) combinations and learning from the decks that other people play.
Hours 50-150:
However, as soon as you make officers' club (you will probably make it pretty quickly since it's not that difficult, within say, 50 hours) you are thrown to the sharks. You will have maybe 20% of all the cards and only about 5% of the elites and special cards that really make the game fun and competitive. You will be competing against
1) whales
2) People who have played this game since beta, own every card, and will destroy you with a "troll" deck that they built for fun.
For example they will build a deck consisting entirely of number 10 commandos and orders. They will never move a unit to the front line and you will still lose.
Another example: an entire deck based entirely around light infantry. Yes, they will still slaughter you.
At this point probably you will only win games once you build an ultraspecialized blitz deck which gets boring to play pretty quickly. You will not have many of the "fun" cards like number 10 commando, alpine, mobilize cards, resistance cards, weird italian blitz cards, retreat cards, etc that really make the game fun.
Around this time you will start playing draft. People say that draft is the best way to get new cards. Maybe at one point this was true but at this point draft mode is full of shrewd and experienced players. Without experience you will get slaughtered in draft mode. Some of the players in draft are so good that there is a whole tread on this forum speculating that there are hackers in draft because "nobody is that good".
To me, this part of the game was just an absolute unfun slog. This may be by design from the developers to try to get people to purchase decks using real money.
After 150 hours:
After you grind out the first 150 hours or so in the game it will get a lot better and more fun because you will start getting the cards and experience you need to build FUN decks and still win games. Plus you will be competing against those poor noobs who just made it to OC and they are easy to beat. This is when you can start producing creative, fun decks and still have a decent winrate, because you have enough cards in your collection to produce diverse, interesting decks instead of the same tired old decks you have seen a million times.
The first campaign is about to be released though in a couple of days that will increase this number further.
I could be wrong but I think as long as you haven't reached top 100 at least once, you'll get matched with other casuals.
I had a problem getting my cheap Midrange Soviet deck to FM this June meta because I don't have any good gold or silver rarity cards compared to other nations. So I decided to drop my rank to ~1000 thinking I would be matched against others who run budget/casual decks. But I was wrong and all of my opponent run expensive meta decks with tons of deployment effects.
It feels like after a certain point, the matchmaker doesn't treat you as a casual anymore.
Once you have reached the officers club it is highly likely that the match making is based on nothing else but your elo number.
All RNG, you lose some, you win some.
I just broke 100 hours or so made officers club (prob later than most) and have gotten about 10 or so elites from 100 or so booster packs that i got just from ingame rewards.
One day something just clicked and i switched my strategy up and walked 3 nations to FM in 3 days with mid range decks that had like 90% win rate. It took me 100 hours tho to understand how to make some effective decks with your limited supply of cards that will actually be pretty hard to beat.
Todays campaigns preorder release could answer some of your questions: The so far decent ftp options got quite a hit as the preorder of the newly released campaign with a 29.95$ price tag unlocked 5 Elite cards that won't be unlockable for ftp players for the next 11 days. So Kards contains some real money only cards at the moment. The ingame gold price tag is still unknown at the moment, so I can't estimate how many hours of playing and saving up ingame gold could unlock the campaign for free once it is released.
Draft on the other hand idk. It doesnt make sense to me and there is some janky shady ♥♥♥♥ going on with draft. Its still fun tho. I see it at this point as basically paying 15 gold for 1 pack of cards and maybe having a little fun with cards i dont own. Its really hard to play right now tho because people somehow have magic synergised tank decks, control decks, infantry decks and i have no idea how they could possibly predict the next 20 cards they would see after they picked their first 20. Just doesnt make any sense.
The two times i was winning in draft with say 3+ wins and no losses i quickly entered scam mode and lost the next 3 games. Either by the board freezing with the game still running and music playing, the radar timer for a match breaking then forcing me a loss ( that was really cool) or other ♥♥♥♥ that made no sense. Its rough.