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Yeah it's the best I've found so far. I'm using Sharp Edge and Shield Absorb right now.
As said before, it really depends on your build and the essence of where art thou fairy biddings.
Hmm. Ok - so basically a horde = 100 mobs?
1 - ( ( 1 - x ) ^ y )
So 4% x 100 attempts = 98.31% chance of a single orb drop.
First Health upgrade, cost 105, +15 HP.
I've not had a chance to play enough to determine the average % chances of shard drops (I know the big blue slugs seem to have ~30% ish drop rate, screen is usually too frantic to tell # shards / kill)
But, let's say: 100 mobs = 500 shards
500*0.85= 425
75 shards is 71% of a level 1 upgrade, for the cost of +50 hp (say).
Then level 2 cost * 0.85 etc, I expect the price rises / skill level unlocked.
So, basically:
Starting out, health is low, and you get 1 flask, but upgrades are cheaper, but AI hp is low etc. Health Flasks increase in efficiency as total hp% rises. So, with 500 HP they're worth far less than 50 HP (? I presume - or is it fixed +HP / flask - this isn't usually how it works in these types of games, I'm using Dark Souls for reference here)
At what point does farming that 4% chance drop over-take a 15% lower XP gain?
Looking @ the math, I'd guess not before you had a decent HP pool and shard / skill costs rose a lot more.
TL;DR
This upgrade favors much higher shard cost / HP totals than you have at the start of the game.
It's a very strange choice as the player's first perk, given it favors (or appears to) end-game builds.
Even though the game is 15 hours, some people will spends hundreds of hours slowly maxing their character. No different from other rogue-lites I suppose.
Without upgrades, an elixir will heals you for 100 hp. They don't drop from monsters and rarely otherwise. At the beginning of the game they are your only method of sustain. Monsters have 50% of dropping shards (assuming you don't equip golden charm). This means that at rank 1, health charm will provide you 100ish hp for every 50 monsters you kill. The downside is that said monsters will drop 15% less shards. However, most of your income early on don't come from monsters. It comes from pot, crates and chests. Those are not affected by health charms, meaning the real XP cost of the perk is more like 2-4% less shards per run. Now given that the load times are decently long (sorry about that), I'd wager that surviving slightly longer because of the perk results in a much better shard per minute played overall.
That plus all hp to shield, plus +2 pots and pots now heal shields and you are good to go.