Progressive australium weapon drop rate?

[Timmah! <SF>]

Simple suggestion: a progressive drop rate for australium weapons.

In another thread, it was effectively determined (with some margin of error) that australium weapons have a drop rate of 4% upon tour completion regardless of the tour count (avg of 1 australium every 25 tours). But some have expressed some dismay at completing 100...200 tours and still not getting one while others get one on their first tour. Totally understandable for something like unlocking crates where's it purely the cost of a key, but completing MvM tours requires some degree of completing a challenge as well.

I don't disagree with preserving some level of randomness to keep it interesting, but I'm proposing a gradual ramp up drop rates with tour counts. More specifically, number of completed tours by each player since last receiving an australium weapon.

For example, change the odds of receiving an australium on tour #1 to 1%, and gradually increase the odds by .25% for every subsequent tour. That is, 1.25% chance on tour #2, 1.5% on tour #3, 1.75% on tour #4, 2% on tour #5, etc....and a 7% chance at tour #25...and capping at 7%. This preserves an element of luck while adding a degree of reward for progressively higher tour completion counts. The example above still averages out to 1 australium for every 25 tours completed, so there's no significant change to the overall rate of australium drops.

[kopaka gaming]

This is how the Australium drop rate should of worked from the beginning. For gods sake, I'm sick of seeing players with 30 tours with 4 aussies and players (Like myself) with 50 tours and no Aussies.

Change the drop system valve. Because it clearly isn't random. It totally biased to players who don't play MvM that often.

[jc]

All I have to read is the title to know that YES, THIS SHOULD HAPPEN. I've got a friend with 70 tours who hasn't found a single australium, and another person I played with once had 10 tours and found 2 australium rocket launchers.


One problem arises: There has to be a cap to the chance of getting an australium, or eventually people would be finding an australium literally every tour.

[|UKMD| Bunny]

I presume it would reset the chance everytime you got one.

[Jimmi Stixx]

I'm guessing its to keep the market in check. Farmers who play all the time would flood the market with gold colored crap and it would be worthless soon after.

I see enough people in PvP with australium weps. That said I guess I don't really give a sh!t if every weapon in the game was solid gold or not.

[Draekon]

I have a new theory on australiums. I saw yet another low 2 tour get one. It isn't those perfect flawless quick games. I am beginning to believe that those games where everyone ragequits but the ones who stick it out get a slight edge with aussies. It would help explain why low tour MvMers tend to get them....just ranting over working so hard to only get $%^.

[Larry Kaberga]

Originally posted by Jenga_Block:

Change the drop system valve. Because it clearly isn't random. It totally biased to players who don't play MvM that often.

In my 34 tours, I've seen so many 1 tour people who got an australium wep at the end of their tour (like 10 people or so) And indeed, I myself actually got better loot in my first 10 tours than what I'm getting right now (no aussies yet, just two profitable pro fabs) I'm convinced that the better loot is somehow related to lower tour numbers.
You work hard for the gold, you don't get it, tour after tour, and yet, you see someone getting that australium wep you worked so hard for, without almost any kind of effort to get it.
Frustrating isn't it?

[Rowdy Hunt Buckman]

Originally posted by Draekon:

I have a new theory on australiums. I saw yet another low 2 tour get one. It isn't those perfect flawless quick games. I am beginning to believe that those games where everyone ragequits but the ones who stick it out get a slight edge with aussies. It would help explain why low tour MvMers tend to get them....just ranting over working so hard to only get $%^.

I got my last four australiums roughing it with noob teams. I remember because when they were awarded to me, I was bummed because none of my friends were there to see. But there is definitely something to it this theory.

[Draekon]

Originally posted by Huck_Bluntman:

I got my last four australiums roughing it with noob teams. I remember because when they were awarded to me, I was bummed because none of my friends were there to see. But there is definitely something to it this theory.

Funny, it was that game you left where someone got an aussie. The soldier and I were basically carrying the rest of the team and we got no good loot to show for it. So many quit that game even as I soon as I just got there.

[Timmah! <SF>]

I've seen no such rhyme or reason, though - and find the theories about toughing it out to be far-fetched, personally. I've had a healthy mix of painless tours with experienced players, tough tours with inexperienced players that lasted over 2 hours, and I have played every meta class a fair amount. My only decent drops have been 3 pro kits (wrench, shotgun, and tomislav).

And to clarify, my proposal is that your chance of receiving an australium resets to 1% after receiving one. This would keep the total number of australium drops (vs total number of tours completed by all players) the same as it has been, if not slightly less - so their value would be preserved.

[Karl Pilkington]

Too easy to farm and exploit.
Imagine if this was the case when hacking was really rampant. Its still happening too.

[STOUT SHAKO FOR 2 REFINED]

In my last tour all australium take 0-9 tour players. Only one time i see how 70 tour pyro take a his first ausy.

[obi]

I'm hitting tour 140 and have only found four so far; a wrench, ambassador, tomi, and black box. It does seem strange that for supposedly being random some players have much better luck overall than others. This is also true of unboxing crates I've unboxed a lot and have yet to get an unusual. It's hard not to come to the conclusion that some people have all the luck and the rest of us get a big bite of a crap sandvich.

[《FRU》 ~Fructis Norva~]

Originally posted by äМċobiwanCoyote:

I'm hitting tour 140 and have only found four so far; a wrench, ambassador, tomi, and black box. It does seem strange that for supposedly being random some players have much better luck overall than others. This is also true of unboxing crates I've unboxed a lot and have yet to get an unusual. It's hard not to come to the conclusion that some people have all the luck and the rest of us get a big bite of a crap sandvich.

Luck or Valve hate us..
Got only a Tour 20 Tomislav and 114 Tours done.

[Soldier Claus]

Guess what? "Random" means "random." Humans have this weird tendency to imagine that randomness is uniform. For example, humans expect that random coin flipping will result in more or less alternating heads or tails, while ACTUAL random flips will often result in numerous instances of either heads or tails in succession. Likewise, players feel cheated if they don't get their first Australium by Tour 25 or so, when in actuality some players get Australiums every 10 tours while others have 100 tours and still no Aussies

Do you know how probability works? Assuming the 4% figure is accurate, here is the percentage of players who will NOT have found an Australium by a given tour number:
1: 96%
5: 82%
10: 66%
25: 36%
50: 13%
75: 4.6%
100: 1.6%
200: 0.02%

That's right! You are more likely to make it to Tour 75 without an Aussie than to actually find one on any given tour.

I noticed that, under the progressive system you propose, you will have almost the exact same chances of finding an Aussie in 25 tours as in the actual system. You are punished for your first 12 tours, but are rewarded for the next 13. I will assume it stops at 7%, because otherwise the numbers would go too high and people could farm Australiums. Even under such a system, 5.8% of players would still not get an Australium by Tour 50. And there still could be some unlucky soul out there with none at Tour 200.

Long story short: don't rely on random crap. Play for fun or don't play at all.

[Timmah! <SF>]

@Black Francis, your sentiments are received and acknowledged. That said, no one here is whining but you. I made a well-thought-out suggestion to modifying the drop rate logic to *improve* the fairness of it. It's actually possible to suggest ways of improving things without whining about it. No need for blatant disrespect. @CAR_, yes, I get it and I understand how probability works and I don't play MvM solely for the chance of getting an australium. But don't pretend like it's not an incentive - we all know it, especially Valve. And you're right, it doesn't completely eliminate the random-factor, but it would reduce it and encourage people to play more (and for Valve to make more money). And if you'll re-read my original post, my suggestion would not increase the total number of australium drops and could not be abused to farm australiums.