Tour drop chances

[Woodskay]

Can somebody tell me the chances of getting an australium, golden pan other stuff because I wanna know what the average amount of tours would be to get one

[Softshine798]

TL;DR; The chance isn't 100% known, although the chances are relatively low, especially for Golden Pans.

People have gone thousands of tours without a pan (the person with the most tours, 3600+ has yet to drop a golden pan), where people have gotten a pan within their first few tours.
Australiums are far more common, but still rare, some people have gone a few hundred tours without an Australium drop (I have 90 overall completed tours, zero Australium drops), where I've seen people get an Australium on their first tour. It's also worth noting that you can't get Australiums or pans in Oil Spill.
Blood/Gold/Diamond botkillers have a chance to be dropped instead of their common counterpart (Rust/Silver/Carbonado, respectively). It is possible to get a Blood/Gold/Diamond and an Australium (and possibly a Pan) in the same tour, and it is possible to get a Pan multiple times (so far, at least two people have gotten two Pans).

[Danizk0]

Originally posted by naic hat:

you can't get Australiums or pans in Oil Spill.

You can get australiums from tours that are not 2cities?

[EyeOculus]

Originally posted by Danizk0 | trade.tf:

You can get australiums from tours that are not 2cities?

Originally posted by Valve:

December 22, 2014 Patch (Smissmas 2014)

Added chance to find Australium Weapon rewards to all Advanced and Expert Mann vs. Machine tours. Previously only available on Two Cities tour

Its been 4 years since that.

[Danizk0]

Originally posted by Eye:

Originally posted by Danizk0 | trade.tf:

You can get australiums from tours that are not 2cities?

Originally posted by Valve:

December 22, 2014 Patch (Smissmas 2014)

Added chance to find Australium Weapon rewards to all Advanced and Expert Mann vs. Machine tours. Previously only available on Two Cities tour

Its been 4 years since that.

Then why isn't anyone playing other tours?

[Softshine798]

Originally posted by Danizk0 | trade.tf:

Originally posted by Eye:

Its been 4 years since that.

Then why isn't anyone playing other tours?

The other tours aren't as profitable as Two ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ (one weapon with a chance of a hat versus 10-20% of your money's worth). That still doesn't mean that you can't get Australiums from other tours as the patch notes all the way from 2014 say that you can get Australiums from other tours.

[Emsy ♥]

1 in 200 or 0.50% chance for an Australium

1 in 4000 or 0.025% chance for a Golden Frying Pan

[wux]

Originally posted by Poxk3t ♥:

0.50% chance for an Australium

Maths is hard :(

[smol]

Originally posted by Poxk3t ♥:

1 in 200 or 0.50% chance for an Australium

1 in 4000 or 0.025% chance for a Golden Frying Pan

Pretty much ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥. No idea where you got these numbers.

[Emsy ♥]

Originally posted by XmypkuH:

Originally posted by Poxk3t ♥:

1 in 200 or 0.50% chance for an Australium

1 in 4000 or 0.025% chance for a Golden Frying Pan

Pretty much ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥. No idea where you got these numbers.

Ya its ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ cause its not confirm. But you'll never know the Australium drop rate cause TF2 devs haven't released what it is and never will.

But mathematically speaking and after a couple months of research thats the closet percentage to a Australium drop and Golden Pan drop.

You don't need to believe it, but if you want an ideal percentage in the back of your head of an Aussie / Pan drop rate, well thats the best result you'll get.

[smol]

Originally posted by Poxk3t ♥:

Originally posted by XmypkuH:

Pretty much ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥. No idea where you got these numbers.

Ya its ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ cause its not confirm. But you'll never know the Australium drop rate cause TF2 devs haven't released what it is and never will.

But mathematically speaking and after a couple months of research thats the closet percentage to a Australium drop and Golden Pan drop.

You don't need to believe it, but if you want an ideal percentage in the back of your head of an Aussie / Pan drop rate, well thats the best result you'll get.

Some people say the australium chance is about 3% and it seems the most accurate for me. Pans are about 350 times rarer than aussies (≈3600 of each aussie except for 1200 of eyelanders on 200 pans).

[MannsOverMeta]

Mind showing the research where you got these statistics from?

[smol]

Originally posted by MannsOverMeta:

Mind showing the research where you got these statistics from?

You mean me?
3% is just out of nowhere, not really trustworthy source. Numbers of aussies dropped from bp.tf but they're outdated.

[wux]

Originally posted by Poxk3t ♥:

But mathematically speaking and after a couple months of research thats the closet percentage to a Australium drop and Golden Pan drop.

Maybe you'll be so good as to share your maths and research with us. I mean let's completely forget that - if there is a 'rate' at all - it's in no way 0.5% and just focus in on your numbers here.