Can the Oster Conspiracy result from Monarchist Austria?

[Videogamesrule2]

I started a "historical" game as monarchist Austria under Otto. I puppeted Czechoslovakia and Poland.

If I refuse Anschluss, don't call in Czechoslovakia, then later they refuse to surrender the Sudetenland, will the Oster event fire because of the two rejections/blunders? Would it not because the Anschluss was player influenced?

I may find out before anyone replies, but I thought I'd ask. It would be pretty cool to end up with a German in the Hapsburg Alliance cause of a civil war.

[Videogamesrule2]

It looks like the event only fires if Germany is at war with Czechoslovakia, France, and UK, so I guess this will not turn out well for me, cause I was banking on that