Could Germany have invaded Spain 1940?

[Citizen X]

Was trying to find out if and how Axis could take Gibraltar via Spain. Reading online Reddit and Quora, it seems like people are split 50/50; some argue that a German Campaign in Spain would be very easy and quick, citing Spanish exhaustion from the civil war, others say it would be a hauntingly similar situation Napoleon found himself in 100 years prior.

Personally, im unsure what this conflict would like. Its not as if a Germany ambitions in Spain have the same deliberation as German plans for Russia; There was no intent to depose Franco or settle Spanish land with ethnic Germans. Once Gibraltar was taken, British presence in the Western Med would be greatly reduce, allowing Germany to resupply the Garrison via Sea. Any Spanish land that remained under German occupation would be much smaller, and much easier to defend, than a North-South Supply line through the entire country.

Germany would need to make their presence in Spain felt as little as possible, so the Spanish population did not feel as though Germany was attempting to exert influence over them.

Would Franco* request British aid over this? Would Portugal facilitate Britain?

What do you think?

[mk11]

Fairly sure the only rail line from France into Spain ran through Vichy territory. Unless Germany invaded Vichy, or could get access, the attack would have been a logistic nightmare. Even if they did invade Vichy I think the rail line would be hard to protect. Coastal supply could provide some support but would be vulnerable to the RN.

Good chance both Portugal and Spain would request British aid. Also Turkey and the USA both might move towards the UK diplomatically,

A reason that Spain was reluctant to join the war was that it depended on fishing for food. If Germany occupied Spain that fishing would have been hindered so the Spanish would have been starving and not happy.

[Randy Darsh]

They could have, but it would be a logistical nightmare and likely keep the Western front alive. Even if they took the major cities/ports the Germans would be contending with a very angry population, then add guerrilla warfare and it would turn out like it did for Napoleon.

Portugal would likely help Spain like they helped Franco during the Civil War, and my guess is Britain would also help. Franco was very smart with international relations, a big reason why he ruled right to the end of his death.

[JDouglasBarson]

It could have been done. Vichy France would have be force to join the war with Germany. That being said, UK and USA might have actually been paying several nations to not join the war or prepare for war against the Axis. The whole invading neutral nations didn't help the Axis at all.

I doubt an occupation by Germany would have been seen as good for Spain. The Spanish available military manpower was actual large (250,000-750,000) but lack resources to support a war for more than 3-4 months. Probably Spain would use guerrilla warfare. The occupation would have been worse for the Germans not matter how they treated the civilian population.

[Citizen X]

Thanks for the responses guys. Let me respond to each.

I see this argument everywhere; the supply would have been a major issue. I would like to hear more about specifically way, because im not quite convinced on this just yet. Axis were able to supply Rommel in 1943, and I think it would only be easier in 1940, no?

Most of the German army was already in Southern France, Mobilized and armed. How long would a race to Gibraltar take? France took 6 weeks. Once in the south, could a perimeter be setup where German forces operated? Dont have any German Forces in the interior, only a small occupation in the south around the Port and surrounding ports.

One person I was reading mentioned that Germany could focus on a Campaign in Spain rather than focusing in the Balkans like it did in our time-line. Theoretically, closing the Mediterranean would make Allied aid in the Balkans much harder, so a Balkan campaign should have taken second priority over Gibraltar.

Obviously, I cant say for certain, but Spanish response may not be exactly the same as Napoleon's, even if very similar. Hitler would not depose Franco, steal resources, anything like that. The population may not be AS motivated to fight off an occupation with such limited goals. If Spain were to get Gibraltar back, they would actually be gaining land from this German invasion, which I saw someone point out in a Quora thread.

TLDR; France fell in 6 weeks, take Gibraltar quickly, then abandon occupation except around Gibraltar and supply via Italy and the Sea

*Edit: Ill have to look into food being a concern for Spain; I can see how joining the Axis could put Spanish fishing at risk. I wonder if German offers in our time line included food

**Im unsure of Portuguese intervention; its very likely Germany would already be talking with Portugal, trying to offer guarantees. Germany has no need or war with Portugal. Meanwhile, the BEF had just been battered, and the entire Germany army was in Southern France (roughly speaking). Would it be worth the risk for Portugal to take any side during this operation?

[55zanaris99]

tldr

[mk11]

Germany could barely keep Rommel supplied and that was only 4 divisions. However, it would have been easier to supply forces on the Spanish coast because no pesky Malta but that wouldn't help inland.

The whole thing comes down to can they go through Vichy or not? If they can't they have a small front in mountains to attack through followed by a long overland drive to reach the Med and a new source of sea supply. If they can go through Vichy not only can they get the rail line but also push down the Med coast.

Trouble is if they go into Vichy weeks after forming it that really blows their chance of making agreements with other nations.

In other WW2 strategy games the way to attack Spain is to crush France and not form Vichy.

Not sure how easy actually taking Gibralter would be. It was quite well fortified and would have had the support of the big guns of the RN until Germany could get airpower down there (more supply problems, bombs are heavy).

[Xautos]

Messaggio originale di Citizen X:

Was trying to find out if and how Axis could take Gibraltar via Spain. Reading online Reddit and Quora, it seems like people are split 50/50; some argue that a German Campaign in Spain would be very easy and quick, citing Spanish exhaustion from the civil war, others say it would be a hauntingly similar situation Napoleon found himself in 100 years prior.

Personally, im unsure what this conflict would like. Its not as if a Germany ambitions in Spain have the same deliberation as German plans for Russia; There was no intent to depose Franco or settle Spanish land with ethnic Germans. Once Gibraltar was taken, British presence in the Western Med would be greatly reduce, allowing Germany to resupply the Garrison via Sea. Any Spanish land that remained under German occupation would be much smaller, and much easier to defend, than a North-South Supply line through the entire country.

Germany would need to make their presence in Spain felt as little as possible, so the Spanish population did not feel as though Germany was attempting to exert influence over them.

Would Franco* request British aid over this? Would Portugal facilitate Britain?

What do you think?

Keep in mind that Germany would have been overextending itself too far too fast and would of had to deal with constant resistance forces springing up. even if Spain was taken by the Germans after the Germans took France, it would take a massive commitment of resources and time to sort out the country, rebuild it for war and get everyone to start following the Nazi ideology.

The French resistance were a constant problem for the Germans throughout their campaign and a lot of them willingly joined a free french army to push the Germans out with their allies. So imagine how bad it will be dealing with Spanish resistance movements and free Spanish forces supported by the allies started pushing back.

The very real risk is that if Germany lost their position in Spain and France quickly trying to fight like that, they would have ran out of units from which to fight with and the war could have ended a lot sooner.

Russia is also an example, although originally some Russian counter-attacks failed to stop the German advance, the Russians did eventually manage to stall their progress and eventually push them out. With the allies on one side and Russia on the other, Germany eventually ran out of units to fight. This is where Hitler lost his war, because he was too ambitious to take Moscow and Russia and seriously over extended his capabilities, this left his forces in a severely impaired state to the point they couldn't put up a credible defensive action.

[Citizen X]

Messaggio originale di mk11:

Germany could barely keep Rommel supplied and that was only 4 divisions. However, it would have been easier to supply forces on the Spanish coast because no pesky Malta but that wouldn't help inland.

The whole thing comes down to can they go through Vichy or not? If they can't they have a small front in mountains to attack through followed by a long overland drive to reach the Med and a new source of sea supply. If they can go through Vichy not only can they get the rail line but also push down the Med coast.

Trouble is if they go into Vichy weeks after forming it that really blows their chance of making agreements with other nations.

In other WW2 strategy games the way to attack Spain is to crush France and not form Vichy.

Not sure how easy actually taking Gibralter would be. It was quite well fortified and would have had the support of the big guns of the RN until Germany could get airpower down there (more supply problems, bombs are heavy).

Great response. I am simply not familiar with Vichy France and its formation. I wonder in this moment if Germany could continue into Spain before Vichy is formalize, or if facilitating a German campaign from Vichy land could be a pre-condition.

When you say "it really blows their chance of making agreements with other nations". Who else exactly is there? I understand in theory, this concept that IF Germany offers the French surrender terms that are "reasonable", they may come off as easier to negotiate with. However, i cant think of any successful applications of this good faith during the war. If there was a time where good faith is needed, it could be in Spain, where the Spanish need to be assured that German ambitions go no further than Gibraltar. :) but thats just me joking around.

Im not sure how easy it would be to capture either, however I think Axis could greatly reduce Allied traffic through the straight using planes and artillery. As far as I understand, United Kingdom did not have a fighter plane that could reach Gibraltar from the Home Island, which may make it easier for Germany and Italy to use bombers against the port.

I have plenty more to say, but ill keep it readable

[Citizen X]

Messaggio originale di 55zanaris99:

tldr

its literally right in there, lol

[Citizen X]

Messaggio originale di Xautos:

Keep in mind that Germany would have been overextending itself too far too fast and would of had to deal with constant resistance forces springing up. even if Spain was taken by the Germans after the Germans took France, it would take a massive commitment of resources and time to sort out the country, rebuild it for war and get everyone to start following the Nazi ideology....

Ok, well lets think about it. France surrenders June 22nd or whatever. How long does Germany spend in Spain? How large of a force does it take to contest the Straight and keep it closed? Where are Italian Units during this time? Can they handle Garrison duties while Germany is off in Russia?

The idea that Hitler would face Spanish Guerrillas probably just comes from Napoleon. Hitler would not impose a continental system on them, like Napoleon did, and Hitler would not replace Franco with a brother of his, so Im not really sure how much motivation the Spanish have to fight the Germans. Are the Spanish willing to fight the Germans for taking Gibraltar? The Spanish would have to shoot first, as the Germans have no reason to.

[mk11]

At that time: Bulgaria, Turkey, Sweden, Portugal, Iraq, Yugoslavia, Greece, USA are all nations that are not in the war, are important, and might be put off by a double-cross against Vichy. Roumania and Hungary would probably stay with Germany anyway and Finland would go for the continuation war. Portugal is critical for its Tungsten and Sweden for its Iron.

[bjrs551]

Interesting discussion. Couple of thoughts. First, in the game doesn't Germany have the option to keep going rather than forming Vichy in an Armistace? Historically, the Brit's got to be very good at stirring up Resistance movements. Hate to think what they would have been able to do with Spain, and the idea that Hitler wouldn't take any resources from Spain made me chuckle.
Probably a better way to at least half close the Med would have been to take Malta with the paratroopers instead of pissing them away on Crete, which proved to be a dead end. anyway.
Unless one of his faithful minions got to him first, Hitler was bound to overextend in one direction or another. That seems to have been his nature.

[Citizen X]

Messaggio originale di bjrs551:

Interesting discussion. Couple of thoughts. First, in the game doesn't Germany have the option to keep going rather than forming Vichy in an Armistace? Historically, the Brit's got to be very good at stirring up Resistance movements. Hate to think what they would have been able to do with Spain, and the idea that Hitler wouldn't take any resources from Spain made me chuckle.
Probably a better way to at least half close the Med would have been to take Malta with the paratroopers instead of pissing them away on Crete, which proved to be a dead end. anyway.
Unless one of his faithful minions got to him first, Hitler was bound to overextend in one direction or another. That seems to have been his nature.

Great point. However, one thing against Malta, is that Malta is much larger, which would theoretically make it easier to defend, with more space for supplies, men, weapon systems, etc. The Straight of Gibraltar is also much more narrow and easier to block traffic. Im honestly not sure what would be easier. Obviously, that doesnt translate very well in the game though; both these tiles can be fortified equally. In-game, Malta capture would not close the entrance to Med, rather only contest the waters easier

Another approach I wonder if possible, would be taking Spanish North Africa and closing the strait this way, going through French North Africa. It depends on how far we are willing to go with Alt hist, but if we are willing to say that Hitler violates Vichy France integrity by invading Spain from Southern France, OR even outright annexation of all French land, then it would be less ridiculous to imagine Hitler forcing cooperation in French North Africa. Or, even the Italians could focus their efforts here, rather than against the British in Egypt.

[mk11]

Going through French North Africa seems possible. I can imagine Spain being intimidated in to ceding Spanish North Africa (specially if there is a secret codicil agreeing that Germany will return Gibralter to Spain if they take it.

As for closing the straits from North Africa. There are a few issues. I doubt the Italian navy could maintain the supply lines to the forces: they were hard pressed supplying Libya and Morocco is a lot further. The effectiveness of land-based air against Naval forces in 1940 was largely unproven.

[Citizen X]

Messaggio originale di mk11:

Going through French North Africa seems possible. I can imagine Spain being intimidated in to ceding Spanish North Africa (specially if there is a secret codicil agreeing that Germany will return Gibralter to Spain if they take it.

As for closing the straits from North Africa. There are a few issues. I doubt the Italian navy could maintain the supply lines to the forces: they were hard pressed supplying Libya and Morocco is a lot further. The effectiveness of land-based air against Naval forces in 1940 was largely unproven.

North African approach would also make the situation with Spanish resistance non-existent; Franco would be much less inclined to ask for Allied Aid, and Spanish civilians would be much less inclined to mount a resistance movement over the water in what are minor colonial possessions.

Now, the supply issue I believe there is more to discuss. IF the axis can close the straight, in whatever meaningful way, then shouldnt the Allied presence in the Western Mediterranean is all but extinguished? With Suez the only other entrance, it may even be that Axis shipping lanes in the far Western Med. is actually the furthest from any Allied warships.

How to close it is a problem. What tools WOULD Axis use to threaten Royal Navy? What resources could Axis manage to get all the way to the Atlantic? Italy cant afford to sit its navy outside Gibraltar, when Suez is still open.