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I was playing Netherlands too.
In my runs, "Treading the Narrow Path" was easy. I just uncheck historical focus at game setup and lead the minor democracies to defeat Germany at around 1941.
But the "Bevrijding" was so insane. Despite my continuous efforts to bombard German industries with flight wings, the other allies just can't do nothing but watching Germany defeating USSR and unite Europe, Africa and Asia with Italy and Japan. At 1946, the difference of industries was like 1k factories on the Allies and 2k factories on the Axis. (The British and USA's fleets were defeated by Germany btw.)
Even if we assume, that winning without L-L is was historically impossible: In this case the game is highly ahistorical. I remember that in earlier versions the Allies helped out with L-L, so I wonder wth happened. That's why the USSR needs either a buff to be able to win on its own in favorable circumstances, or it needs to receive L-L to stand a chance.
Regarding China: Historically it did receive volunteers from all over the world and got also military supplies from the USSR, so again I wonder why there is no help in the game.
Anyway I opted 1.6.2 beta for next playtrough and as SU unability to defend is addressed in patch notes, so I am looking forward to give it a try in new game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJ9PiDvI4pY
The crappy thing is, I should have had it. One of my first attempts the Allies sent in troops as I left. They retook my land and conquered Germany before I could do the focus, lol.
Every attempt afterwards always the same thing, Germany or Japan takes Russia out. Then uses all that manpower and production and becomes unstoppable. Mostly because the air superiority can not be beaten, you struggle to maintain 1000 planes in an airspace and the AI has thousands. Next thing you know you got 30+ factories doing aircraft and you are still falling behind. Then around 46 or 47 I run out of steel and convoys.
Nothing new there.
The statement from 9:29 is completely besides the point. The construction principes were not similiar at all. Russians had to make do with plywood constructions instead of aluminium for quite some time, reducing the quality of the aircraft, but beeing able to produce it in the needed numbers. They just substituted materials, so it's not "mysterious" at all.
If you have to fight and you have no iron left is a sword out of copper still better than no sword at all...
However, the Allies are having difficulty crushing the Confederates (because of their Homeland Defense ability), thus, Canada got eliminated from the war quickly leaving the Japanese troops and other allies isolated. The British, though democratic, are already waging war to reunify the Anglosphere once and for all.
Before, in every single game with historical focus I was able to hold off Japan as China, even in the 1.6 patch, and once the US joins the war I can really feel the pressure being let off and I can easily push Japan off the mainland.
Then I bought MtG and now Japan just slowly advances over me as China and there is nothing I can do about it and even when the US joins (if I can even hold out that long) there is no change, I still can't even hold the line.
I play US and mroe or less everything in world go historic path. War trigered in June 41 - I started pump lend-lease to SU, more than 1k convoys, about 150k infantry equipment and thousnads of guns and other gear. At the same time SU pupetted Finalnd before (small, btu nice boost and protection at this area) and I am in war since early years, mainly by air (but it definitly must cost Germany lot in manpower and production)
But still germany is on steroids - Moscow jsut falled and it is July 42, with this speed SU will collapse in less than year neevrtheless all material aid it got from me.
As only bright side I must say brits do quite well (well I ntoed in lend lease they miss over 1k convoys so fixed that with mine - that could be difference) - they still fight in Africa, got dominance on sea over Germany, Italy and Vichy (jsut losing fleets to Japan though) and they fight in India without losing ground.
PS: Just soon before SU collapsed I checked lend-lease and ti showed me they miss 8k convoys... what the heck they are needed for as Soviets hold just eastern part of their country - and my lend-lease already ended -I had no Idea.. but it could be part of issue.
I would put the confirmed Soviet survival date later, in early 1943 after Stalingrad. Summer 1942 saw the Soviet troops in the South collapse and another huge, Barbarossa like advance all the way to Stalingrad. If Stalingrad had fallen, much of the raw materials in the Caucasus would not have been able to he shipped north. It would have been the end for the USSR. Alan Brooke though that the British would have to defend against the Germans in Persia and India.
And if Bagration had failed, the Soviets may well have been halted. They were suffering from huge manpower shortages, which they solved by drafting in liberated PoWs and any young men they found on the way to Berlin. Turning Hungary and Romania helped too, but it was no where near as forgone as most people think it was.
The main problem with all this "western judgement" is, that you can't judge Russia by western standards. History showed very well, that the SU defied basically all expectations with impunity:
- Hitler expected the SU to surrender before winter
- the British and Americans expected it to fall by the end of 41
- economists expected the soviet economy to collapse at the end of 42 (based of "other wars in history")
- pretty much all of the Allies expected the Red Army to collaps after witnessing over 3 million of soviet soldiers going into captivity after just a couple weeks of war
- German generals expected Leningrad to surrender after half a year, once the food ran out
(- Napoleon expected Russia to surrender once he took Moscow)
You know what the Russians did? They showed the middle finger to all those "expectations". Therefore, Bagration would have only given Germany a little more time, because its economic capacity was already exhausted. By that time, the soviet production was already totally mobilized and they literally outproduced the german one on land and air. The german military potential was already exhausted long before Goebbels proclamed the "Total War".
I guarantee you, that even if Germany would have captured Moscow, even if Hitler would have taken Stalingrad, the Russians would have still grinded down the Wehrmacht in an unprecendented partisan warfare. That's also what most people like you tend to forget. Partisan warfare played a very important role in undermining the german war potential, and the more the war dragged on, the better and stronger those partisan movements became. They became highly organized and extremely effective at sabotaging supply lines and damaging the german war effort. It was simply impossible for the Wehrmacht to occupy soviet territory long term, because the population just hadn't the same self centered and craven mentality as the western did. Don't forget, we are talking about a population which left behind the most bloody revolution in human history not even a couple decades ago. It can't be overstated just how tough the soviet people of that time were.
Hitler would have lost simply, because the soviet people were not ready to surrender, under any circumstances. You can't hold over 100 millions people occupied if they defy your occupation with hundreds of thousand flowing into partisan corps - even children. Therefore, even if the Red Army had to fall back beyond the Ural, the Wehrmacht would have been utterly unable to follow up with their offensive and would have still been defeated by partisans and the inevitable counter offensive that would have followed anyway.
As for partisan warfare, thats a no. The Soviet partisans were sustained for years by airdropped weapons by the Red Army. They caused trouble, but never came close to chucking the Germans out of the USSR. That was down to the Red Army. If the Red Army was defeated, they would slowly but surely run out of weapons, no? But even more sinisterly, General Plan Ost had the Germans committing genocide throughout their occupied territories in the east, which would have killed off any chance of partisan warfare. Wipe out the population the partisans hide in and live off, and the partisans become nothing more than desperate bands of bandits that would be wiped out, one by one. Like the Boer War or the Malayan Insurgency, except the Germans would kill the popation instead of isolating them from the insurgents. Pretty standard anti-partisan stuff, since the partisans can never stand up to the occupier, any policy which forces them into open conflict with that occupier will wipe them out. The Germans were not constrained by the need to protect civilian life that insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan have benefitted from. In fact, they would gladly massacre millions, knowing that it would cripple any chance of prolonged partisan warfare.
The USSR was saved by the readiness of its citizens to sacrifice all to expel the invader, and by the near miraculous transformation of the Red Army into the best military in the world by 1945.
By the end of 1943, partisans controlled more than 100 thousand square km. of Belarus, which was about 60 percent of the republic's territory. The partisans controlled more than 20 regional centers and thousands of villages. By the time of the return of the Soviet Army, most of the Belorussian SSR was in the hands partisan groups and the actual size of republic controlled by the Germans was small.
It's not a myth, it's a certainity. Russia has yet to lose a defensive war in its history and it has fought a lot of those.
It's geographically consideren unconquerable. Even the Wehrmacht generals said it. Only people like Hitler and you believe otherwise.
You should read more about history, seriously. Try to start with wiki instead of playing HOI4, where a lot is just absolute BS. Even todays armies would need over 9 million mibilized manpower to garrison todays Russia (without even counting partisan resistance etc), and we are talking about the Soviet Union here, which was far bigger.