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If you don't mind cheesing the system, you can justify against random countries you don't care about (Luxembourg, Sweden, Switzerland, etc.). The UK will start to guarantee those, but will quickly run out of PP (as each guarantee costs more PP than the last one: 25PP + 25PP for each coutnry already guaranteed, if I recall).
Otherwise, wait for Germany to start WWII and take the brunt of the Allies' war effort before you start to conquer the rest of the Baltics.
Don't invade Yugoslavia. :)
There's not much you can do to lower it, as other events (if Japan takes China, Germany demands Sudetenland, etc.) will raise it no matter what you do. The point of the system is to stop exactly what you're doing.
1. conquer france.
2. conquer UK (and maybe also take the other allies counties also)
problem solved. ;-)
Short Story Long ...
You can play the game as peacefully as you desire as Italy, but it won't stop Germny from opposing the Rhineland, Spain from having a civil war or Japan from Marco Polo incident. All these things (amoung others) add world tension and will eventually tip world into global war, you cannot do anything to stop it, all you can do is make as much territorial gains without a world war before that point.
World tension is generated via,
Certain Focuses (often the ones which have you demand territory of other nations)
Justifying war goals, the bigger the nation you jutify against? the more WT you generate.
Declaring war, goes without saying but this is a big one.
Sending volunteers to fight in other nations wars, specifically in this instance, sending divisions to fight in the Spannish Civil War.
And can only lowered by you at the peace conference table after you win a war.
Otherwise world tenion lowers slowly overtime and when a democratic nation guarentee's another.
To reitterate what I already said earlier, you can control the world tension you generate but it will not stop the war because you cannot stop the AI from doing it's thing, With historical focuses on 25% will be attained in 1938 weither you do anything to add to it or not.
A REALLY valuable target is spain if the Republicans win the civil war. Free factories plus you have access to Portugal (Free Tungsten) and a second border to France (Spoiler Alert: French A.I. usually can't manage three fronts at a time, including the german one)
so, as i mentioned earlier:
1. conquer france.
2. conquer UK (and maybe also take the other allies counties also)
then there wont be anyone left who guarantee any other countries.
doing this is quite easy as germany, but harder as italy. but it can be done.
but you have to finish of france before japan declare war on china, or france will join allies.
and after securing 1-3 ports, you send inf and mot divisions over by sea. send from different ports, then you will reach with most of the divisions. send out a small navy to seek and destroy a few hours before you send troops. then send out the rest of your navy to escort duty, at the same time you send troops. not before.
should land with roughly 20 (of 24 that you sent), which is more than enough to conquer uk in late 37/ early 38.
also, you can use ports from former french territory to naval invade the other allies. you dont need to win, just that you are in battle with one of their troops. this will allow you to annex those in the peace treaty.