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If naval supremacy still not achieved, then you might have to try and tempt the enemy into a naval battle in order to sink some of their ships.
It says Patrol, Strike Force and Naval Invasion Support are all equally effective for naval supremacy.
Air superiority also gives a bonus. I wonder how best to use carriers in order to get naval supremacy? If they were set to Strike Force, then presumably they wouldn't be providing air superiority, but if one manually moved them to the sea region and manually set the aircraft to air superiority mission, then the ships wouldn't be contributing, as the wiki says 'Hold (in and out of port)' gives 0% naval supremacy.
I've just gotten to the point where I can reliably beat Japan, often getting 10-1 K/D and frequently sinking multiple BBs, CVs, BCs, and CAs to the loss of just a few planes.
A few things that help:
1. Radar. Ideally, I start the war with nothing less than centrimetric radar. Be sure to fit it to all your non-ASW ships (for me, everything above CL.) Every ship should have the highest tier radar available, save for DDs and CLs (which I put tier II sonar on.) DO NOT sacrifice fire control systems to have both sonar and radar on the same ship.
2. Fire control. You can't kill something you can't reliably hit. Research the best possible fire control system you can and install it on your new build ships. You get a research bonus from the "mechanical computer" technologies, and, although it might look like it, the fire control computers are actually in the year prior to their icon's location. (Try it for yourself and see what I mean.)
3. Organization. Organize your ships into balanced strike groups. For me, this means at least one CV, at least 5x BBs, at least 4x CAs, 3x CLs, and 24x DD (for the starting USN ships.)
4. Production. Navies take YEARS to build. The earlier you do your naval research, the better (though you still have to balance it with the rest of your research.) Get ships into production ASAP and assign them to head directly to task forces the moment they are launched (well, technically commissioned, but you get what I mean.)
5. Dual purpose batteries. Aircraft are the single largest threats to a ship, and, true to real life, shipboard AAA is atrocious. (IRL, it took something like 10,000+ rounds to kill a single plane before the introduction of "flak" guns.) Dual purpose batteries can shoot both light hulls and aircraft and they are lethal against the latter. If you ever have a choice between AAA and dual purpose, take dual purpose. Hell, my CLs and DDs have dual purpose batteries as their primary weapon.
6. Screen ships. Never stop making them. Click the "-" below the "1" and it'll change to infinity. They'll roll out of the shipyards in an endless stream. Its a good idea to do this with ALL your ships, capitals included.
7. Subs. These can wreak havoc on unescorted capitals (particularly damaged ones that split off for repair.) Fit these with the best torpedo tubes and radar you have and set them to patrol. You will lose these more than any other ship, but they are very effective. Be sure to assign these to dedicated fleets (ideally with a production line assigned to automatically reinforce.)
8. Mines. Mines are a great way to cause damage without taking loses of your own. I sent six minelayers into the South China Sea for a year, they laid 400+ mines, took no losses, and sank five ships. Use a destroyer hull, fit it with dual purpose batteries, radar, and minelaying rails, and set it to "Do not engage." They'll stay clear of combat (to the fullest extent possible, which given a DDs speed, is quite often) and will passively lay mines endlessly.
10. Air superiority. The SINGLE biggest threat to a ship is aircraft. The easiest way to ensure your ships don't get hit by them is to simply flood the airspace with fighters. Do note that range is defined by a radius, not a region. Its possible to have complete air supremacy close to an airbase, and nothing of the sort in more distant reaches of the same region.
11. Air superiority Pt. II. If you have air superiority, that means then enemy doesn't. If they don't, then you can flood the airspace with bombers to strike THEIR, ships. Naval bombers are the best for this role, though tactical bombers and CAS can do the same. Naval strikes also cover airborne ASW.
12. "Sink the Invincible Aegir Fleet while its at Anchor." Wait, wrong game. But the same thing applies. Once you have air superiority over an enemy naval base, don't wait for their ships to leave port before attacking. Send bombers on a port strike to attack them while they are vulnerable (the bombers can be assigned to port strikes and naval strikes at the same time.) Send strategic bombers to destroy the port itself while you're at it.
13. Carrier aviation. When you build a carrier, the initial air wing is included. (Because apparently, shipyards are equipped to build aircraft, which was not the case IRL.) However, as your air wings take losses and technology advances, you'll need to build more. This means you'll need to set up dedicated production lines pumping out carrier capable aircraft. These lines will first reinforce under strength squadrons, then update squadrons to newer equipment, then stockpile the rest in reserves.
14. Carrier aviation Pt. II. You can use carriers as either floating air bases for striking enemy territory/ships or you can use them directly in naval battles. What you do is your choice, but I advise you to NEVER send your fighters away from the carrier. Don't do anything with them, including assigning them to air superiority or interception. They'll do both of those automatically if the task force is engaged, but won't if you gave them an actual mission. Be sure to exercise your air wings prior to the start of the war.
15. Cruiser subs. These are basically submarine aircraft carriers. Only a handful of nations can get them, but the US is one of them. These can't conduct strike missions or defend themselves from aircraft, but they can carry multiple float planes to increase surface ship detection. These make very good eyes for a wolf pack. You don't research them in the tech tree, rather they are a national focus.
16. Interface. Don't assign a task force to multiple zones on opposite sides of the ocean. Use shift-click to unassign a region you no longer want them to operate in.
17. Admirals. Much like generals do for armies, admirals can add minor buffs to your fleets when assigned. Use them.
18. Repairs. For capital ships, disable automatic split off least you want 3/4 of your screen ships leaving for minor repairs. Its always better to have the task force go back to port than to lose 10+ capital ships to a few aircraft. You can leave it enabled for groups comprised of subs or screens.
19. Patrol>convoy raiding. IMO. They're effectively the same thing, though convoy raiders will disengage if a warship shows up. If my subs see a single battleship show up to escort some convoys, I'd like them to sink it as well.
20. Intelligence. The game models SIGINT (signals intelligence.) This can help you locate and determine the size of enemy task forces with sufficient decryption research. Encryption research minimizes the extent to which the enemy can do the same to you.
21. Research. Most naval benefiting research is found in the naval tab, but not all of it. Tier III AAA, for example, is unlocked by researching the Tier III AAA in the artillery tab (the Bofors 40mm for the US.) Likewise, fire control systems and radar is in the engineering tab.
22. Research Pt. II. There is very little to directly gain by researching new ship hulls. The only things you gain are a few more module slots and more powerful engines. Nothing else is included. 1936 hulls seem to be the most economical for most ships.
23. Speed. Speed kills at sea just as it does on land. The faster the ship, the better. But, the more weaponry you put on the ship, the slower it is. Its a trade off you need to balance. Faster ships can simply disengage from a fight if its not going well for them, but frequently can't inflict much damage, either. This is the main reason I don't research super battleships until I have the 1940 heavy ship hull (and its far more powerful engine.)
24. Homing torpedoes. This is just a hunch, but anything that increases a torpedo attack is a good thing. I've had subs go up 1v1 against a destroyer and win- probably because the game models it as a long range shot from standoff range.
25. NAVAL BASES. This is the SINGLE biggest factor. Naval bases can make or break a navy. Although ammo and miscellaneous supplies (i.e. food) are not modeled in game, fuel is. Likewise, should a ship be damaged and need repairs, it needs somewhere to get repaired. The closer this location is to the action, the better. Least you spend weeks sailing back to California and back. The more naval bases, and the higher their level, the more ships can be repaired at any one time. The faster ships are repaired, the sooner they can get back into the fight. Even if your ships are not damaged, if they are based out of a distant base, they'll head THERE to resupply instead of the closest base. Right click on a closer naval base to rebase them there and then click on the region you want them to operate in.
Do note that even if you do everything right, naval superiority will still fluctuate as ships return to port for resupply and repair. Your goal is to make these fluctuations as transient as possible.
Fleet in Being. A fleet docked at a port having strike orders on a sea zone can still give them superiority.
To counter it use naval bombers with port attack orders on Ceylon