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Not if there are destroyers and crusiers
https://imgur.com/PQFJC9X
train 48-72 20width infantry divisions with support art and fighters+close air support.
in april 37 (when justifications finish) declare both wars (should be under 25% world tension prior so no guarantees due to NOT doing rineland) cheqs will join due to guaranteeing yugo and ROMANIA will join due to guaranteeing greece.
Roll over all 4 nations 1 at a time due to them not being able to form a faction as well as not giving each other military access so its 1v1 4x. Now you have the 70 oil from romania and can basically constantly train air and your small navy non stop due to inifinite fuel.
Synthetic refines are borderline garbage, and honestly need some massive tuning to increase their fuel production for them to even matter. just build 6-9 fuel storages in a couple of larger provinces inside germany and focus on increasing the refinery tech (right side) as opposed to synthetics, as this boosts the oil to fuel conversion rate.
Synthetic refineries produce fuel from thin air and it is so small its a waste of a factory slot to build now.
Basically germany REQUIRES 40ish oil from trade to run its airforce so your fastest and most stable option is to annex romania ASAP. the plus side of the 4 countries attacked previously is you also gain a nice pile of cromium from greece and some aluminium from yugo allowing you to pretty well play tradeless until you need tungsten later for medium tanks or jet tech.
the UK has a serious issue with oil, and can be instantly starved out of the game with a few convoy raids set to block their trade routes from malaysia and the USA. without that they cant even use their fleet effectively.
Japan also has some serious issues with fuel as it has next to no natural oil available before it can strike at malaysia as they have 3-5 oil in the north island bordering russia and only 2 oil in china available. means they are locked into trades until they can acquire the 25ish oil of malaysia or indias north eastern oil, both requiring you to fight the allies on a budget.
I built quite a bit of refineries as Germany and gained a significant amount of fuel and rubber. Especially rubber is hard to come by once Germany becomes toxic to rubber exporters. My first concern was the stupidity of cargo ships travelling and getting sunk at the english channel. I also wanted to keep the industry working for me and not the exporter. After all you might as well use it to build refineries than to import oil and rubber.
Grabbing the Balkans brought up the fuel production to an excellent level along with the refineries. There was hardly any need to export oil and no need to export rubber. Building a good amount of refineries was the single best choice of the campaign. I was sceptical at first but saw no other choice than to try.