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Therefore, the only way that you can "force" AI to choose non-historical focus is to either mod it or you switch those decision yourself unfortunately.
Poland AI for example is just hard coded to make their own faction. Chance of Germany picking the civil war tree is also very small.
Jokes aside, while choices are 'hard-coded' in historical, nonhistorical gives a % chance. its not an even percent chance as EvilNick points out, but there is still a chance for most options, afaik. So, to answer your question, if some of the changes you want to see only have say a 5% chances of being chosen, you'd have to queue up 20 games or so to catch it (or be really lucky).
Eh that is a shame, since germany 50% if the times goes for the economic parts of the tree before going for the political part, it would take a long time to see it happen. Or i could just save scum it i guess..
I suppose thats the only way. Though I would have liked to keep ironman on.
Shame you cant boost non-aligned parties.
When Death or Dishonor came out, my first game with Hungary ended with my troops occupying Canada and on the borders of USA.. Although recently my games arent in my favor that much.