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Japan starts out with 71 divisions about 548.000 army size. And you have alot better equipemnt than china.
China starts out with 57 divisions (276.000 army size) but will have about the same divisions as Japan when most of China unites when the war starts - still alot less army size. China also have the worst weapons, no artillery, no support equipment, no motorized, no tanks.
You can go for the chinese border incident and war with china straight of the bat and easily win.
You make two armies.
You put all cav, motorized, naval and half of the Chuton-chi Shidan divisions in one army.
The rest you keep for the other army.
Now you have two armies. One with 35 units and one with 36 units.
The one with 35 you put on the china and Shanxi borders.
The one with 36 you send all the units to the Nagasaki/kyushu region and prepare a naval invasion against Shanghai. (use a single motorized unit and the naval unit for the invasion. When the invasion is underway send your navy outside of Shanghai to do some naval bombartment to help quickly take Shanghai)
As soon as Shanghai has been taken. Send the rest of your 36 units to support and quickly take as much land as posible. Stop when you begin to meet heavy resistance.
Now its time to push with your other army (the 35 one).
Now just keep changeing which of these you are pushing with depending on where you are winning.
This is far from the quickiest or best tactic to take China. But its very easy to do. With this you end up with between 150k-200k death.
You just have to remember to not push when you are not winning and be one the defensive every now and then to make the enemy run in to their deaths. Your lines reform and your divisions organisation refill.
Its so very easy. China is a very weak country. Only in MP can China be annoying. And thats only if USSR sends some of their OP armored units.
In addition to above, you can also do additional naval invasion further south and can capture all the ports - they are not at all defended and they account for a lot of VPs. Also, did you upgrade your infantry template to 7inf/2arty with oen recon and engineer for support?