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I also don't think we can say there's any particular reason for unnamed settlers in other player-controlled settlements to represent multiple people. It might be different for premade places like Diamond City or the Institute, but it's unclear.
You know you've played Fallout a fair bit when you see "COA" and immediately think "Children of Atom".
Anyway, assuming a MInutemen/Enclave alliance ends up as something stable, I think the NCR would provide us the best comparison for how they'd relate to the Brotherhood. There's not necessarily a fundamental need to fight based on them just existing, but they may come into conflict over more specific issues.
While the NCR might be a bit large for the Enclave to take on, I see them just repeating how they took down the United States, through a shadow government within. If they were to do this they could possibly rise again.
The legitimate government was gone long before the bombs fell. The Enclave had control for quite some time prior. Long enough that the Secretary of Agriculture Eckhart had siphoned enough funds to build the Whitespring.
I also think too much time has stalled for anyone to come forward as the legitimate government. If you think about it, it would be no difference in time compared to Confederate States of America decided to coming back.
The problem with that is Bethesda has currently written the Enclave off in the Fallout 4 era. It also aint done much with the Enclave in Fallout 76 either. Which I find kinda disappointing because the Enclave was pretty strong at that point in the timeline that you would think someone from the Enclave would show up in Appalachia.
With only remnants left, they're more likely to try joining someone else. Even if you potentially have old-world tech and secret access to old projects, you need enough people to help you make use of it. One area the Enclave falls behind the Institute is that they didn't go all-in on humanoid robots and don't have a convenient supply of troops.
Even fascists aren't all mindless drones that refuse to cooperate with anyone; there will be some of them who are more compatible. I mean, what do the Minutemen need more than some real backbone and an iron hand to tame the Commonwealth?
It's real late, so let me just walk the dog, on that one issue with numbers.
How many "people" a NPC really "is":
Take Diamond City.
At any given time you see more than a dozen guards patrolling around the city.
A given patrol size needs 3 times the men to maintain it (a Squad on shift, one squad off shift and another in training, refitting, sick call, admin, maintenance etc)
So the DC security forces needs a minimum of 36-40 men just to maintain what you've seen outside.
Thats not counting the forces u see inside.
So just from what you saw from DC security when u do include the folks inside you are looking at a bare minimum of 50-60 men to maintain.
The totla NPCs in the DC is 50 or 52.
This DC security force I laid out does not include the mainetance of a QRF or any other opreational reserve.
Bare bones.
Now you also have several shops and children.
And non shopkeeper residents.
A single person does not run a shop, even in the absence of employees there are as a minimum family members helping.
Someone like Arturo might represent a family of 5 or 6.
So in summary the 52 NPCs fielded by the program could never be a real universe "Diamond City".
So each NPC clearly represents "more".
So you are looking at a minmim or 300-600 people to "be" what Dianomond city shows us in the showroom window of the program.
So if we multiply every NPC by 10 to give a rough representation then suddenly settelement with 10 people make sense.
Because while 10 people would never be able to sustain a village, in a hostile environment , 100 people could (if a large portion of them are armed)
Ok, maybe multiplying by ten is a bit generous, but certainly the multiplier would be no less than 5 and likely closer to 10.
Think of the minutemen patrols, too
When u are a high level MM general you have a 25% default chance of runnign into a MM patrol at a settelment.
Since u can never own all settelements in the state of MA, and minutemen would likely patrol non MM settlements as well.
We are proabbly looking at a bare minimum of 50 settelements existing in the common wealth.
The program is only putting a certain portion of those into the showroom window for us to interact.
So the default chance once you are leveled and are a successful MM general that has fixed the MM is 25% for u to run into a patrol.
if memory serves thats usually 5 or 6 folks.
But the majority of patrolling would be in transit between settelemnts say 90%.
real world Patrols dont teleport form village to village.
So for you to see them 25% of the time and there being 50 settlements (not all made available to player by the game) you have to add a multiplier of 4 and then again a multiplier of 10 to get to the number that the faces you seen must represent...since only that fraction of MM patrols is even in settlements at any given time.
That means that at any given time a mimimum of hundreds MM are on patrol in the commonwealth , at any given time.
Say 500 (which seems real low to me ), that still means that the MM field a force just for patrolling of approx 1500 Men.
That is not counting administrative, trainers and trainees and any operational reserve.
So near the end game when the player is a leveled MM general the NPCs he commands represent a bare minimum of 3000 Men, likely higher.
And this is not even accouting for the fact that a great number of MM are certainly part time.
You may look at 10,000 MM in the commonwealth and up .
Now thats a realistic number for what the game describes the MM have done in the past and are starting to do again in late game.
And remember the entire game has only 1500 NPCs..... so these 1500 NPCs can never rpresent a real universe COmmonwealth if you take thier numbers by face value.
(That high MM number also makes also sense because why else call him a general?
That title has historically in the USA been reserved for people commanding brigades and up.
A Brigade is approx 3500 Men (there are some distinctions between indepedent Bridgades vs divisional Brigaes, but lets keep it simple)
Historically often a Brigade may have even been commanded by a Colonel rather than a 1 Star (Brigadier General)
Even if we allow for rank inflation in a non govermental military force ( like state Police forces also often have)
If the MM had always been say less than 1500, "Colonel" might have been a better title for thier boss. Also a fine sounding title.
but the lower numbers implied by Colonel then the MM would have never even been able to attempt the mission set that they apperantly perfomed for generation before thier recent defeat.)
So in summary I believe a realistic number for MM a lone at their heyday ( and now again under asuccessful lvled SS) is 4000 Men and up and many more when the part time nature of thier service is accounted for.
But again the game has only 1500 NPCs total on display.
Clearly the game is not running 4000 MM in the background down roads just so u can meet them some portion of the time.
It places them near you.
So they represent a larger number of real people.
And even in the post apoc the entire population of the former State of MA is not 1500 people.
Not when a place called Diamond city exist that along should be 500 people minimum no matter how many NPCs the game displays.
We have to make some allowances for limitations of computers and game engines, and this is what bethesda did and that is why we dont have 80,000-100,000 NPCs in the commonwealth on our computers, (just a stab in the dark number for a low estimate of people in the Post apoc commonwealth based on implied population densities in the game.)
It'd be nice but computers and engines cant handle that, yet..
So yes, it is my contention that NPCs in game represent a much greater number of "real humans" if this was not electrons but a real universe. :)
That was the entire reason for the Enclave/Vault-Tec experiments; to study a multi-generational, isolated society in the confines of space travel. The space tech didn't come to fruition within the timeline, so the Enclave went with their contingency plan and headquartered at the Oil Rig. And then they enacted their secondary emergency objective: to destroy everything that was contaminated, ie. everyone that wasn't Enclave.
They are the purist of evils that Interplay came up with. Remnant soldiers and deserters would be treated like the SS at the Nuremberg trials, if said Wasteland "judges" even knew where they came from.
Settlements and shops are similarly undermanned and stretched thin. The Abernathy family really is there with just themselves, placed at incredible risk. The setup is unstable, but these aren't strictly villages, but scattered farmstead in loose connection with each other. I agree that there are likely to be more "settlements" than we see; other loose farms scrounging out a living wherever something will grow and hidden in the space of the world that the game doesn't depict.
Some places like Diamond City may account for support from their stray NPCs, of course. Maybe one random guy who seems to do nothing but live in the market helps Arturo for example. It's left undescribed how all of them earn their living so there's some tolerance involved.
It's similar for the MInutemen; they'll run in a way that real-world forces no longer do, with no proper training or people devoted to it, and everyone scrimping by just barely workable. There aren't reliable patrols everywhere, and sometimes certain routes may be left unattended. The post-apocalypse just isn't up to a reasonable standard, which is how disorganized raider gangs can pose a threat.
I'd like to make a better estimate on the real numbers, but the game contains a whole lot of fudge to obscure it. It's only in cases like those specific families that the game allows us to firmly pin down the situation.
I would not bother to create any actual estimates. People are just going to argue your estimates are wrong. They will simply argue whichever way favors their point or faction.
Maybe six months or so ago I tried to do an estimate just to see how many people the Institute had killed in their 109 years of FEV experiments. Given FEV takes about two weeks to run it's course that gave an estimate of two per month. Which I think two per month was a VERY low estimate of 2616 (2x12x109) but people of course had to white knight for the Institute and claim the numbers were too high.
Ironically these same people tried to claim FEV was completely voluntary basis, which if you run the numbers it aint possible with the population of the Institute. Not to mention people would tend to start getting paranoid about people volunteering for an experiment and not coming back.
I kinda have to disagree with versa part. The actual evils the Enclave committed are not well known. I think Project Purity was their first open warfare engagement lore wise. Almost everything the Enclave has done is pretty much player only knowledge, kinda like the evils of Vault-Tec. Fallout 4 was the first where NPCs actually started talking about the evil experiments.
This is where I always felt bad for Roger Maxson because he never found out about the Enclave. Had he known about the existence of the Enclave and what they had done I think he would have slept better at night rather than carry so much guilt over Mariposa.
Ironically when you think about it, the Enclave would have been responsible for putting you and your family on the Vault list as they hand picked everyone for the vaults.
The rate of mutants is more plausibly going to depend on how long it takes them to do whatever testing and experiments they're attempting, and that's simply unknown.
It's only restricted by the Institute's population if it's assumed they only test on their own people, but we know they get subjects from the Commonwealth (implicitly the surface).
EDIT: My main point to socialmediaaddress on the numbers is that our assumption in this case should be of a post-apocalyptic setup that isn't really reasonable and maybe not even properly sustainable, but is all they have. We essentially want to calibrate our assumptions for "unreasonable breakdown of society" rather than "sensible operation".
The deformed time and space of the game add inconvenient fudge as noted, because we can't trust that we see to be the right number of people. For example, we know that DC does have guards, but can't be sure exactly how many. They could be more than expected just because someone thought it looked good. We don't have a solid lore hook to build upon where they tell us a number.
I agree. Most people just won't be aware of what the Enclave was doing.
It's pretty clear, from an hour ago, unedited.
But you wouldn't need a Wasteland Survival Guide to know that the Enclave and MM would be fast enemies.
In that sense, one of the themes of Fallout 4 is the american revolution. I think it is obvious from factions, to characters, even companions like Hancock or robots like Ironside, And laser muskets... I mean laser muskets are ridiculous, the only reason they exist is because the original minutemen used muskets.... Who in their right mind would create a high tech laser weapon that needs a crank to reload and needs to reload for every shot? LOL.
So, it makes sense that the leader of the Minutemen, is the "General". Naming him Lieutenant or Colonel would be lame. It is not meant to imply a certain number of conscripts. You are the general even when the minutemen are only you and Preston....
Look at this also this way, people rebuilding civilization from the ashes, found historical records and read something about american revolutions, minutemen, generals, muskets, and stuff. And decided to replicate them in some capacity but since no one remembered how things actually were in history, they just applied the terms anyway. So the General is not someone commanding thousands upon thousands of men, he is simply the leader of the militia according to the holy holotapes of the ancients.... That's how people after the Apocalypse interpret it.
In comparison, you wouldn't call the primary leader a "lieutenant", since that literally means someone who occupies a place (a tenant) when the normal person isn't present (in lieu of them). A lieutenant is there to stand in for a higher position when they're not available.
OTOH, the enclave's goal of wiping out all the mutations is the only way to fix the surface world. They can't reclaim the surface if Mutants, including mutant bugs, mole rats, ants, humans, cows, deer, raiders, etc exist.
Clearly, radiation has made people stupid, uncooperative and violent sociopaths in the game. There's even a reference to this from Far Harbor about the Trappers on a wait screen
Somehow rifle has been confused with a gun which is a smooth bore weapon.
Garvey calls his little beech, SS, "general" like he's trying to humor an idiot. And SS falls for it. There's no option to slap garvey's face off when garvey mocks SS.
Where is garvey getting information about all these settlements anyway? He has inside info and seems to be working with the raiders and super mutants.