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In my first playthrough I had 3 to 5 attacks at the same time multiple times a day at settlements with lots of provisioners. The next playthrough I linked them as above so that only two provisioners visited and there were very few attacks.
For example, connecting The Slog to Finch Farm ensures your provisioner will walk right through Saugus Ironworks parking lot. Any Forged there will be drawn into a fight, and probably end up engaging one of the settlements, too. Bad news if this is The Slog, as many of the original ghouls there are not set essential, and can die.
On the other hand, connecting The Slog to Greentop nursery ensures your provisioner will walk right by the crashed military convoy, a frequent spawning ground for military robots, which I'm pretty sure are random encounters because they seem show up there more often than cell resets would call for.
There are a number of random encounter points around most settlements. Look for campsites, not all random encounters are at campsites, but campsites are almost always random encounter points. You could find anything from a friendly bartender to a super mutant patrol at them.
I recommend scouting the area around any new settlement thoroughly before designing defenses or setting up routes.