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Weird that it would take them that long to make a few quality of life changes that modders can do in a few weeks time. I think BGS are just plain incompetent.
Sounds like late September or October is the likely release then.
You are assuming they have actually been working on it since then. For all we know, they haven't even started working on it. They might not even have planned to start working on it until months later. The only reason they announced it when they did was likely because it was the 25th anniversary of Fallout.
They'd do it in Oct/Nov. It's the perfect time. 1 month after Starfield release so the smaller game (FO4) won't get sidelined + it's FO4 anniversary. Do a sale along with the upgrade announcement, maybe drop some small crossover/mention to Starfield and give it an attention boost post release
It's the biggest deal for MS this year and after going through the gauntlet of underwhelming/'lacking 1st party games and Acti-Blizz drama, they prolly don't want to risk anything, and taking even a bit of spotlight from Starfield is not a good PR-business move.
In a window after Starfield's release they'll try to reach as many people as possible through all means- copies sold, GP subscriptions, consoles sold. F4 update wouldn't be that distracting, but I wouldn't bet on it personally.
I think the release date will be approximately the same.
Perhaps a couple weeks before the release of Starfield, so they can get feedback from FO4 player base.