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I find it difficult to imagine, (still), that BOS and the Enclave chased each other all the way across the country. If either were still around, they would still be West of the Rocky Mountains.
I can see your point. I understand though why Bethesda kept them in, although they could of made a completely different setting happen when they made Fallout 3. People bang on both the newer Bethesda games though for how they handled the lore. I couldn't imagine the reception Fallout 3 would of gotten if they hadn't put in familiar factions people can interact with.
House's Independent Vegas is 100% down to which NV end is canon.
Followers of the Apocalypse exist, but their half religious movement.
Enclave, signs are unclear, but by now chances are high there are multiple Enclave bases remaining, as having Raven Rock and a base in West Virginia is proof they weren't even regional hubs, but just an Enclave bunker system.
Great Khans again NV ending dependent.
The Pitt, very likely does, and Fallout 4 has no evidence of the region being annexed by the BoS, though until we get a canon on if Ashur remained in charge or not, we can't say much more.
West Virginia, good question, though there are multiple ways all factions could have died between 76 and Lyon's Expedition. Though at best case scenario their likely isolationist if they aren't all dead, given Elder Lyons, isn't recorded to have made contact with anybody there and there is no hint Arthur Maxson had contact with anybody there either.
West Coat BoS, as far we know they exist, but have been rendered into minor faction status in the Western US.
I wouldn't call 'creatures' a faction, either way. It's like saying that feral ghouls are a 'faction'. Were they human or simply a ghoul before? yeah, but those can also be parts OF factions.
For my part NCR shows the strongest potential, but I think they probably have their hands full with their part of the country and wouldn't really be branching out too far east.
I'd throw in with the Khans as I usually send them up north to save their culture rather than allow them to be swallowed up by anyone else. I eliminate the Legion. I don't care that they call themselves something implying they're everywhere - my Courier leads New Vegas and the Mojave and would definitely do everything in her power to wipe those fascist creeps off the face of the earth.
Back East though, the folks in the Underworld would be fun to explore a little more. Ghouls and vampires :D
I don't think those were the Trauma Harnesses, because the one Ghost People suit you find in the Big Empty is at the Hazmat Testing Area and I think is listed as a Hazmat suit. And the Ghost People are presumably the Villa workers who got trapped in the suits, which along with the Cloud and the Vending Machines, were from Big MT, so I doubt it's AI.
The Big MT shipped a variant of the Trauma Harness as the hazmat suits, along with the rest of the dangerous experimental tech. They treated the Madre like one big test chamber...and the crews doing the work cut every corner they could, making it all worse.
That's how they got trapped in the suits. The suits were a form of Trauma Harness and wouldn't let them out. Throw in the effects of the Cloud, and the harness actually succeeding for once at the original design job (keep the subject alive and moving) and you have nightmare fuel on par with the ones that just ran around with long-dead bodies still strapped inside, and deranged murderbot AIs.
FotA and great khans would still be alive too either assimilated into legion NCR or gone up north together
Jackals 9/10 chance they would've been wiped out by incoming NCR or worse Legion.
BoS are still alive and kicking and refuse to die
enclave too even if they separated and became new factions
Talon company would probably split
Boomers are still alive
Railroad is still alive around the USA East coast or at least the North Eastern areas like boston and D.C.
Chinese are still also alive and 100% are ghouls
Any super mutants ghouls (non feral ) and night kin are also still alive and kicking
Shady Shoals slavers are still alive and lincoln slave followers either free or enslaved back
Big Mt. Still alive and the courier 6 goes there cannonly after the end of new vegas to overlook it
powder gangers are still alive or dead after you deal with them
fallout 1 vault dwellers and the smart deathclaws are still alive but transformed
vault city still alive
First responders (if you count 76 as prior and cannon) would probably dispersed joined another faction
Mr House / Yes Man still alive at least the securitrons are. If anything Mr. House can be forever imprisoned in the chamber if you take over or shut down the securitrons.
Zetans are still out there
Most of the Pitt factions and mutants are probably dead or cured
the outcast BoS actually took control back and Lyon probably got the commie wall treatment