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I know, not wanting to do that or start killing settlers.
I had trouble getting Murkwater below twenty until I removed all defenses and power. It immediately went from 20 to 16 and is continuing down.
I have 5 supply lines left and the most trouble is the hub to those 5 lines at The drive in. The 5 settlements connected are also trouble. I keep going back to the drive in and removing tons of junk. I was thinking maybe they are helping each other even though the others have no junk.
Then some furnitures (eg overseers desk, a barber chair, ...) contributes to the happiness as well.
Yes it's interesting to see what gets thrown in the happiness mix when the settlement gets low. I travel back to settlements where the decline has stopped and start scrapping until I find the reason. In one settlement all that was needed was to remove a shop.
Strange enough Spectacle Island dropped to 5 without losing it and now it is the first settlement to actually start going back up. It's at 18 and still rising. Two things though it is on the supply lines and there is a BOS hanging around all the time. I have 1000 defense there but nothing else, no beds, food,water, power and 20 settlers.
Another thing I have noticed is I haven't lost aligned with any settlement where a comanion is.
Edit: Croup just hit 2% and I am still aligned. Spectacle Island is back to 20% from down to 5.
Yes you are correct. I usually get that notice in the mid teens. The problem is getting there. Nearly all the alignments I have lost so far are settlements with pre existing settlers. I now have 2 settlements at 4 happiness and 2 that keep going up and down. I can't really tell you when I lose alignment because once you lose alignment the stats don't show.
The big thing you are missing is killing a settler. That will tank your happiness in a heartbeat because it is a -20 penalty to target happiness. Refusing to defend, failing a radiant also have a similar debuff.
I do not know why but it is harder to get settlements to actually leave when you purposely try. I have seen a few people that had issues and lost control very quickly.
I saw several pieces on this and it looked interesting enough to me to see how the game reacts under different edit (spelling) : circumstances for myself.
I think it's an interesting possible coincidence I haven't lost alignment on any settlement with a companion. Also that most of settlements with pre existing settlers fell out of alignment first. Then there are those settlements that are gaining happiness despite flat zeroes across the board.
Not being the analytical brain you and Enept are I can't put the pieces together but I am having fun with watching the settlement reactions to minor changes I make.
The happiness penalties for no bed/unsheltered bed, no water, no food, and no defense are -20 target happiness each. So technically your target should be 0 happiness if you have none. However if you have any of the above then it goes up by 20 target happiness.
You also have to keep in mind the current happiness change amounts depend on the difference between the target and current happiness. The closer the smaller the change, the father the larger the change. Which means once you get like below 30-40 happiness it takes a long while to drop farther.
As to why you get happiness jumping upwards, I aint sure because I would need to see it for myself rather than just guess. However if I was to guess then it would be one of the necessities are being filled like a dog, cat, brahmin or something.
Note in regard to the beds that having almost anything solid above them can count as them having shelter, in addition to some of the bunk beds from the Creation Club possibly providing shelter to themselves.
Speaking of the airport I had a fun time watching X6-88 entertain the BOS troops and I picked up a few souvenir uniforms for the settlers back home.
@DouglasGrave: I have Codsworth plus all the Graygarden crew with zeroes across (they actually still tend the dirt and clip the air). It stop going down at 18 but everytime I go back there it drops a little more. It's down to 12 right now.
You would think a few outside lights and table lamps, or a fully powered settlement would affect a settlement's happiness.