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Facial surgery "magic". He can't create a G3 from scratch cause only Institute has the technology (remember the line about technology to create synths being lost forever once institude was destroyed?) but can modify an existing one to have same facial features and voice.
Same way like Horace did in Fallout 3 for Harkness (minus the voice)
Notice how you are able to change body features aswell during facial surgery.
That seems canon or maybe DiMA tries hard to find a suitable replacement with similar body features and just worries about the face and skin color.
Far Harbour would makes a better observation point since it's the only peaceful settlement anyone arriving on the Island is going to visit, no matter how they leave the Commonwealth. But it's unnecessary, since Acadia isn't a secret on the Island, so getting to Far Harbour would already tell the Institute all they need to know to remove the Acadians as a problem.
DiMA certainly doesn't have a synth production facility hidden up his sleeve, we know from the "What's Done is Done" holotape that Avery's replacement used an existing synth, and DiMA mentions repeating the trick with the Children of Atom to take care of Tektus. The wiki says Cole is used as Tektus' replacement, though I'd have to double-check that.
https://fallout.fandom.com/wiki/What%27s_Done_is_Done
Missing synth component is kind of a moot point, since there are Synths that don't drop one, but still it's another fact that speaks against it. Moseley points out the possibility that "someone else" (meaning the railroad, later shown that Acadia can do it as well) could've planted her, but that too is unlikely. As Nick and Nakono's point out, they're pretty isolated for everything so having a spy that can't bring back anything useful wouldn't make any sense for the Railroad.
Also, the Railroad tries to get Synths out of the commonwealth, out of reach of the Institute. While that doesn't always work out (Harkness got Zimmer on his tail and due to unforseen coincidences Danse ended up returning to the commonwealth) Sure, they've had some Synths like Amelia Stockton relatively close....which turned out to be a costly mistake, when the covenant kidnapped her.
(Speaking of Dr Zimmer, there's also claims that HE is a synth, because he has android component with him. This is also very unlikely, because the Institute does not allow Synths in leadership positions.....unless the Institute was playing a double whammy and sent synth lookalike to the capital wasteland, because they didn't want to risk real Dr. Zimmer to lose his life, which is exactly what could happen if he crosses path with the lone wanderer. Nevertheless, since Fallout 4 takes place 10 years after Fallout 3, it's pretty odd that no one seems to be concerned that Zimmer has just been "on the field" for a decade. Or maybe Dr. Zimmer was just such a colossal prick, that even the institute isn't much bothered with his possible death. Who knows?)
Kasumi's dreams could easily be attributed being a false memory, given that she was still shocked of her grandfather's passing. She probably felt so detached that she latched on the idea of being a synth, because it could've made idea of dealing with grief easier: after all, if she was a synth, then she really didn't lose her grandpa because she really wasn't her granddaughter. Maybe it was easier to deal with a probability that everything was a lie rather than come deal with loss.
Then there is of course that game files have Kasumi registered as a human. Whether this has any relevance to it, I can't say: only synths that are distinct from humans are 1st and 2nd gens and 3rd gens are functioning wholly as human gameplay wise, so there doesn't really seem to be need to flag them separately since they peform same functions.
Anyway, that's my take on it.
Feels to me like Bethesda wanted to make a DLC just to make you think, more than making something that's strictly likely, but at the same time, making it a subject that can get people arguing both sides.
Bethesda isn't that consistent when it comes to story, but they're very good at making characters and factions that get people arguing different angles. I personally agree that its unlikely she's a synth for those reasons, but I can understand where other people are coming from.
I don't think Katsumi is a synth, cuz no component and synths aren't idiots. If she was a synth she'd go back and gladly play the part of good daughter and serve her parents just like Danse serves the BOS.
DiMA isn't conning people. He's explaining what it's like to be uncertain to the Sole Survivor to help them empathize with the situation of the Acadians, not as a way to dupe them.
He readily volunteers an alternative explanation for incomplete memories, and is perfectly happy for Katsumi to return to her parents if that's what she wants.
The synth components are widely absent from Gen 3 synths, and the major divide is between synths inside the Institute (where they're generally absent), and synths found out in the Commonwealth, who often have them (but there are still exceptions like Roger Warwick, who don't).
He does prod. And makes suggestions that a person can not be sure they are not a synth. Only when you insist you are not one, does he stop. So he does more than just explaining. He attempts to manipulate people. And in some cases, does even more than that.
Conning can be another term for it.
One can justify his motives of wanting to keep peace on the island and offering a refuge for runaway synths if they choose to. But real justice is to turn him over to the people of Far Harbor for committing murder.
He manipulates your reaction in that sense, but only to foster understanding.
Real justice would require equivalent treatment for Allen Lee, whose own murder of a preacher is largely responsible for escalating the conflict with the Children of Atom in the first place.
Personally, it's hard to sympathize with the Harbourmen as a group when they allow a murderer to roam free just because he's one of them. Especially when they're willing to exterminate an entire community over the actions of just one of its members even when that member comes to face them and take full responsibility. Sure, if you've helped them enough that can be averted, but what kind of people would ever consider it acceptable?
I am glad to see you admitting he does do some manipulation. He could simply just ask you if you feel you may be a synth and then ether drop the conversation or pursue it depending on how you answer.
I agree about Allen Lee. But that does not mean the murder that DiMA did should be excused. The game does not give you the option to bring Allen Lee's wrong to justice, which only effects him.
And as a point, I generally did the peaceful ending in Far Harbor, because in spite of the injustices/wrongs done by all sides, it seemed to be the best overall solution for everyone.
The simple fact is Kasumi is not a synth and Kasumi was conned into believing she was a synth. No amount of trolling word salad arguments is going to change those facts.